Dialup Dempsey scores an own goal with his latest broadband “target”

At the ComReg and DCMNR joint conference on “Broadband Leadership” Noel Dempsey awkwardly announced that Ireland had “smashed” the broadband target he set two years ago. The target was for Ireland to have 400,000 broadband subscribers by the end of 2006 and he announced that we currently stand at 410,000 subscribers. This is a target that Dempsey decided on himself two years ago. Even with the growth rate as it was two years ago we all knew it would have been reached. Back then Dempsey or his people probably picked a point two years in the future and predicted how many would have broadband by then and then reduced it by 20%, just in case. Dempsey created a new target that didn”t compare us directly to everyone else in Europe, unlike the previous target that Dermot Ahern set. What does 410,000 subscribers mean tpday? It means we are 14th in the EU15 for broadband penetration. That’s the same place we were in 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002 etc. etc. Dermot Ahern created a broadband target that stated we had to be at the EU15 average by June 2005. It didn’t set an actual number but a comparator to the rest of the EU because Dermot knew an actual figure would be useless if there was an upturn or downturn. Looking back now his target would have meant we needed to have some 350,000-400,00 connections. Today we stand at half the EU average for broadband penetration.

In November 2004 Forfas in a report stated that Ireland should have had 450,000 subscribers as of November 2004 to be in any way competitive with the rest of the OECD. We’ll reach 450,000 perhaps by years end. Two years too late.

The study stated we needed 700,000 connections by the end of 2007 to be competitive. Also on Thursday Dempsey lied and said in his initial goal he challeneged industry to be at 500,000 connections by the end of 2007, in fact he told them he wanted them to be at 500,000 by the end of this year. It might even have been 600,000 on the day of his gauntlet throwing, but it seems to have been modified in subsequent speeches. The first group to mention 500,000 was eircom. They said that was what they were going to aim for and now two years later it’s the Minister’s target too. So it seems eircom dictate Ministerial targets. Dempsey’s target is going for an own goal.

If Noel wanted an ambitious target then he’d be demanding a million on broadband by the end of 2007. Instead he’ll settle for half that as eircom know they can reach this. They’re going to reach this with our tax money though. eircom want cold hard cash to enable the quarter of the population who can’t get access to broadband and I have a feeling Noel is going to give it to them with the current chattter from both parties.

What should Dempsey be doing? A few things:

1. Putting lots more pressure on ComReg to cop on. ComReg are the ones stalling on local loop unbundling, permitting a line rental hike, not taking eircom’s FWA licence off them, not giving a damn about the quality of eircom’s lines.
2. Putting more pressure on eircom. The Government are eircom’s biggest customer. With all the dodgy dealings going around it should be very simple for the Govt to have valid reasons to not renew their contracts with eircom.
3. Put more into the Telecoms Bill and while giving ComReg more power, also give them goals which if not reached, they are punished.
4. Start facing the stark reality that SMEs are being screwed unless they operate out of large urban centres.
5. Listen to Forfas’s advice, listen to the Oireachtas’ advice, listen to the (disbanded) Information Society’s advice.

Instead we’ll get some fanfare and confetti at another half-arsed project himself and ComReg will announce before the election. Instead of a broadband Minister as Dermot Ahern was starting to be known we now have a Minister of Dialup and Satellite.