Bertie’s planting seeds

Today’s Irish Times leads with comments made by Bertie Ahern at his party’s Think-Tank meeting in Westport. Ahern used the platform to attack the opposition partnership in what can only be described as the first real swing of the 2007 election battle.

Interestingly though, Bertie seems to be telling us more than is instantly apparent in his attempt to discredit the other side; these are not desperate measures enacted by a desperate man but the slick seed-planting of someone who is heeding the warning signs without publically admitting to it.

Make your way through any recent reports by banks, financial institutions or international bodies and you will see the writing on the wall. The Irish economy, propped up by the finite construction trade is heading into darker times. It’s not a case of a bust, at least not according to the less pessimistic of analysts but the bubble of the Celtic Tiger, which died long ago are set to wear off once and for all in the next few years. The IMF say the Irish economy has become unbalanced, Davy Stockbrokers sees the economy slowing down after the SSIA and housing boost has passed, the ECB says the Irish housing market is abnormal and EU interest rates are likely to rise while Intel, Ireland’s largest employer is looking for some scalps.

When all is said and done by the end of 2007 and the beginning of 2008 it is unlikely that Irish people will have as much money to throw around as before. In essence, while Fianna Fail has publically rubbished any suggestion that the economy is overheated it cannot ignore the facts coming from experts in every sector. Similarly, while Fianna Fail has shrugged off opinion poll results as unrepresentative or too early to be useful they also know that they are very likely, if not certain to lose seats. Couple this with the fact that their coalition partner (and the only party that is certain to bunk in with them at this stage) will see equally dismal results in the election and a third term for Bertie is far from a dead cert.

Ahern is now positioning himself for the inevitable economic downturn and ensuring that he has a good answer no matter what.

A soft-landing is expected despite many fearing a crash and so should that slow-down come while FF are celebrating their third term they can say they have averted a crisis and all good things must come to an end. However should they lose Ahern will be in a position to point to any lesser economic performance and say “I told you so” to the general public and knowing the Irish public has a short attention span he will be able to dodge the point that it was his policies that dictated the Irish economy of ‘07 and ‘08, not FG/Lab or anyone else.

What is most interesting about this long-term spin is that Ahern is certain to step down should Fianna Fail lose next year, so he may be simply fluffing the pillows for his replacement so they have a comfortable platform to campaign from.