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The revision of constiuencies
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There is a old saying that you should fight the battle on your own battlefield. So it comes as no surprise what the parties have been proposing for boundary changes. John Gormley is the man in charge and comes as no surprise that the Greens want no change in the constituencies that they won seats in, Sinn Fein want 9 seater constituencies and Labour want more 5 seaters.
The interesting thing is that the PD advise that Dún Laoghaire should be reduced as it does not have the population which surely will reduce the chances of new PD senator Fiona O’Malley winning a seat. Principled but probably silly.
But the points that Sinn Fein and Labour make about the need for larger constituencies is certainly valid. As Cian pointed out, the key in the last election was the three seaters where PJ’s rule that transfers do not matter came to pass. In the larger constituencies proportional representation works better and should be brought about. But don’t think for a minute that the parties proposing it are doing it for the good of the nation. It is all Sun Tzu.
There is more to the PD move on Dun Laoghaire there, there are many strategists inside the party and around O Malley that keep pushing for her to move back into Limerick East as a way of reviving the PD vote there, since the DL vote is a dogfight next time round revision or not.
The reduction of DL to four seats, with a strong list of incumbents and a Green seat for grabs would be seen as sufficient to ensure that happens.
I agree with the parties on the five seaters. It reduces considerable the number of votes needed to get elected and to be honest about it, Labour and Sinn Fein are being realistic in wanting and needing lower targets to hit next time out.
Interestingly this may not be the final redrawing before the next election. There is due to be a similar situation to 2007 repeated in 2012 with a census close by. The High Court case ensures that any census provisional figures will be acted on so it will either shorten the term of government to 4 years or there will be a further redraw in 2011/2012
Interesting on Fiona O’Malley
Yet it is also possible that Limerick East will drop to be being 4 seater which puts the kibosh on that option too.
I’d heard that (F) O’Malley had already moved to Limerick and was setting up a base for the locals, but obviously being made a Senator will have adjusted her game plan on that.
My understanding was she had a mortgage on a house in Dublin, perhaps not the best time to selling up in the current market eh.