Sunday’s RedC Poll

Wag’s first post on Irish Election. Originally posted on Wagging the Dog.

Sunday’s RedC poll in the Sunday Business Post (with first-glance analysis in that same paper from Pat Leahy and Richard Colwell) makes for interesting reading. Fianna Fáil, who have generally fared best in the polls during Dáil recesses, have failed to make much of a comeback, and only gained one percentage point. Fine Gael, meanwhile, also gained a point, keeping them within eight points of FF.
With Labour and the Greens static, and Sinn Féin recovering the point lost in previous polls to regain 10%, the biggest story was the fate of the Progressive Democrats - now down to just 2%; within the margin of error of non-existance. As reported elsewhere, 2% is where observers in other countries would expect to see the far right and far left lunatic parties, not the driving policy force of the Irish Government.

Fine Gael’s figure is likely to be significantly understated by this poll. RedC do not use the weighting system favoured by MRBI, which takes into account the higher likelihood of Fine Gael’s prospective voters actually making it to the polls. The more detailed analysis of the numbers (normally released by Pat Leahy around a week after the initial results) should show the figures among the electorate who declared themselves likely or very likely to vote. In the poll taken at the end of June, Fine Gael and Labour each gained a further percentage point in this category.
The regional breakdowns should also be interesting. Pat Leahy’s initial analysis shows the “full” Rainbow (FG/LAB/Greens) at 52% in Dublin - a figure that will surely worry the Government greatly. The expected Autumn sale of Aer Lingus is likely to hit Fianna Fáil hard in North Dublin, so we could expect that figure to get even higher before the Budget.
However, it’s not all doom and gloom for Fianna Fáil. A one point gain is still a gain, and any trend in the right direction is just what they’re looking for at the moment. With another two months to go before the Dáil resumes, there is still time for a significant recovery. It must be at the expense of either Fine Gael or Labour, however, because merely splitting the Independent and undecided vote between the two prospective coalitions won’t do Fianna Fáil any favours at all.