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Gilmore and Broughan to Enter Labour Contest
Read more about: Labour Party
RTE this morning had interviews with both where strong hints were given that Gilmore and Broughan (quelle surprise) were interested in standing. There will be a few kits flown over the coming days no doubt Howlin and McManus are taking soundings as is Burton and a Joe Costello must be considering it after a decent Seanad run. The NEC will meet next week and we will likely be talking about this for a long time. Paddy Power has Broughan at 25-1 which is worth a fiver but probably the last you will see of said fiver. Not much of a surprise that the early favourites are Gilmore, Howlin, McManus and Burton.
FWIW this is a tricky one. Burton is interesting but I don’t believe she will connect with the public. McManus is too much of the ancien regime. Broughan is a good guy and in a way might reconnect with a more left Labourism that won’t scare the horses too much. Howlin is good too but does he really want it, and even if he does does the LP want him? Gilmore is very competent and might also push the LP a tiny bit leftward.
Broughan or Gilmore might fit the bill.
Not, I should add, that I think Broughan has the support, but who knows?
Broughan would be excellent for being more of a “back to the roots” leader. I’d be a strong supporter. He also will put Labour first, and not start to wonder what party we should coalesce with - vital if Labour is to remain relevant in the next 10 years.
(Disclosure - I’m on the executive in his Constituency Labour Party)
Can’t see anyone with the media friendly edge there
If Labour had some sense they might pick someone as leader would do the job of getting the national organisation in shape in every constituency, (which Broughan might be the person to do that) and then let the front bench do the media heavy lifting. Or will some of them sulk because they weren’t picked. Labour need to look out for successor candidates for a good number of their sitting TDs, for example and Tommy is on the younger side but who is there in DNE to succeed Tommy 2 elections down the line. Both of their cllrs are older than he is, the party would need to have at least one young person there for 2009.
And that is replicated across the country, who was there to take over from Moynihan, or Patterson, or in Louth when that seat was lost. Too many Labour seats are personal not party.
Problem is how does one determine what is media friendly. I remember when Kenny got the leadership and he seemed to come across well. What a difference five years and serious media manipulation made - eh? One of the basic charges against Ahern has been that he is stumbling and hesitant a lot of the time on camera. And so on. Perhaps Broughan might be just the person for the job. He’s confident and pleasant in person. Dan, good points, but also ones that may just be equally problematic for FG at the next election too after the number of FG TDs convinced to give it one more shot for the sake of the party… Obviously the situation isn’t as pronounced as it is for Labour, but even still.
spot on, Dan. Labour’s main problem is at branch level. Unless that is tackled, everything else is window dressing. Broughan could be just the man to get the party going again. burton would be a disaster, while Gilmore would be “more of the same” with policy castration caused by media-obsessed angst.
The lesson is to be taken from how the election was won by FF. they have sufficient people in areas around the country to get behind the chosen candidates. Those candidates can win votes and the local party can remain loyal and motivated even if head office intervene to choose candidates.
For Labour at present Dan is right, they need to get an organiser. Winning national PR contests is fine but it did Rabbitte little favours. Delivery of votes and seats in 09 and 12 need to be the priority for the party. 2012 will be a nightmare for the leader and someone of organisational calibre needs to be running the show.
I made the point a long time ago that Springs success was due in no small part to fielding a lot of young, quality candidates. That means organising to take advantage of national sentiment.
Cian, taking two localish examples. Will Labour in Limerick continue with James Heffernan, who while he didn’t exactly look like troubling the returning officer did at least outpoll the PD candidate (who was a Senator and had run several times before )on his first time out? And will the Labour organisation be able to find someone to run in Kerry South or a single Kerry constituency who will challenge strongly. Labour have a tendency to abandon areas for generations once the seat is lost.
On those two examples your quite right, if given the right opportunity and work over 5 years Heffernan may be able to do something. Yet Kerry points up why it will be tougher than a stay or go choice. In 2012 there will be at least two candidates of some calibre with family history challenging for the nomination.
Leadership will be expected to take a ruthless approach to one of them and go with the best option. The new leader needs to have their wits about them and also have the nous to pick the right candidate. For Kerry it is rumoured that a young Spring may contest the seat but their is a strong local desire for local councillor/teacher Karen Tobin to take the nominiation. The leader here, like elsewhere, will be picking between two unproven candidates for a seat that Labour used to expect to take. That is a microcosm of what will happen around the country as local parties get into a tussle about who goes forward (considering the number of retirees etc, this will be a particular headache).