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Fianna Fail play a strategic defence
Read more about: Donegal North East, Uncategorized
So Deputy Niall Blaney is back in Fianna Fail. After thirty five years albeit of a highly local existence, Independent Fianna Fail is now defunct. However pleased Blaney and his camp may be, there is a smouldering resentment at the perception that this was a central deal done without reference to the party’s local Ceantair. Hughie McDaid the Chair:
…we wake up this morning to newspaper headlines telling us that Niall Blaney is about to be introduced to the parliamentary party later today. This says it all about the tactics being used by headquarters. We have been totally misled again and obviously the Taoiseach is being totally misled because it is the Taoiseach who is driving this.
As the Letterkeny Post notes with “Councillors Jimmy Harte (former Fine Gael running as an independent) and Ian McGarvey (Independent) also indicating that they will run, the battle for votes in the Letterkenny and Milford electoral areas could be extremely intense”.
Noel Whelan explains (subs needed):
A combination of national and local political trends means that Ahern cannot be guaranteed even two votes from Donegal North East when he next faces a vote for Taoiseach sometime in 2007.
Personal political ambition was Niall Blaney’s primary motivation for this week’s move. He and his organisation will have known that if he remained outside of Fianna Fáil, then he would almost definitely have lost his Dáil seat in next year’s election. Although his vote dipped in his last election in 1995, Neil T Blaney traditionally polled on average about 25 per cent of the first-preference vote in Donegal North East. Harry Blaney polled 21 per cent in the one election he won in 1997. Young Niall Blaney got just under 17 per cent in the 2002 election. There are no guarantees that Niall Blaney can hold his seat even as an official Fianna Fáil candidate in next year’s election, but consolidating his resources presents the best prospect of Fianna Fáil holding two seats.
According to Brian Cowen the party intends to keep it’s powder dry until the Autumn.
In the meantime, Sinn Fein’s Padraig MacLoughlain has made an early pitch for IFFers to come over to him. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that if the FG and FF vote splits sufficiently that he could come through the middle. Both Donegal seats fall within their top fifteen target seats.
Adds: See Blogorrah’s Bluffer’s Guide to IFF.
Interesting to see how this one plays out. The opportunity for SF in the context of a split vote is clear. What’s not so clear is exactly why Blaney decided to join FF? Does this assure his seat? Certainly the location of the former IFF vote will be crucial. Does anyone know the constituency well enough to hazard a guess?
The bulk of the Blaney vote is the Milford electoral area, with some residual voters in Inishowen. I would guess they’ll go Cecilia two, and then SF three (or vice versa).
Sinn Fein only has one candidate but has run in the last Dail election. Even though he only gained .4 of a quota in first preferences, he’s likely to pick up some 1st preferences from the ending of IFF and a fair amount of transfers.
Fine Gael has some form in terms of splitting their own vote. This time Hart has gone outside the party to have a go.
McDaid may not get past a party convention in the Autumn if it is suspected that he would split what is likely to be a weakened overall performance by FF. Bertie really can’t afford to get busted to one seat here.
As a son of Neil T Blaney I strongly advise all those who supported my late father in the past not to support Fianna Fail in any shape or form.. What ever is being said of the new set up between IFF and FF. One thing is for sure, IF, and that is A BIG IF, If Neil T had organised a new set up he surely would not be filling out application forms for HQ to OK.. every member of IFF would be MERGED into Fianna Fail and he would definitely have had a public apology about the way he was treated.. Leaving all that behind, Neil T had serious principles when it came to europe and the federalisation of europe, he had strong principals in relation to our nuetrality ( look at the rapid response units O Dea is trying to get us to join) ( Look at the right wing agenda of Bertie and George W Bush and the use of our air space and airports to transport 100’s of thousands of soldiers fro Shannon to an illegal war in iraq)My father also had strong views on large business affecting the way we run our country, Just look at what Bertie is doing to the people of my mothers home town in Rossport.. Helping Shell do what it does all over the worl …trample on peoples rights….Setting the riot squad on them and then lableing them as violent protesters.. The deal done with shell was done by Ray Burke and Bertie, they gave away our gas. In 30/40 years from now we will wonder what did they get for that deal.. why is Bertie so set on pushing through such a dangerous pipeline against the wishes of the LOCAL PEOPLE… Fianna Fail with their dog the PD’s in toe and Mc Dowell`spouting fascist anti republican jibes at any one who does not support the govt line, is a group of people whom I am sure my late father Neil T Blaney could not and would not support. That party treated my family with contempt and if they think, just because they need the extra votes, that doing some deal with IFF will keep Neil Blaneys family quiet,they have another thing coming….Just look at the way they have treated their own people in donegal, half of them dont want a Blaney about the place and they are being ignored, maybe now those peole should realise why you cant trust the Fianna Fail party.. Or is it a CUNNING and DEVIOUS plan to wipe the name Blaney from Donegal politics…Thank you everyone for your support over the last 30 or so years, the fight carries on. DO NOT JOIN OR VOTE FIANNA FAIL….Annraoí Blaney Howth Co.Dublin. One thing is for sure fianna fail you will not be taking an extra seat, that is and will always be the plan……..
Interesting thoughts Annraoi.
You don’t think your cousin can take up that second FF seat then? Reading between the lines, are you backing Padraig MacLoughlain then?
Like a good politico I dont get into that kind of discussion..Point is FF F’d my dad.I will never support them even if my brother joined.. i dont trust them and no body should they always have a hidden agenda..Always remember “party comes before principal” quote unquote from an unnamed minister, that is the unwritten mantra of that bunch.. On a personal basis I have nothing but the highest regard for my cousin Niall, but my principals cannot allow me to support the party into which he has decided to apply.. The immediate blaney family of the late Neil T are now in a good position to publicly denounce FF, before Niall applied for membership nobody was interested in what we thought..now we can make a difference to how FF fair in the future because the public are listening.WATCH THIS SPACE!!!!!!!!!!!!! cheers Mick.. Annraoí
I am incredibly interested in this space!! So no worries on that score Annraoi!!
where were you Annraoí for the last 15 years???