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David McWilliams terrible use of Statitistics
Read more about: Emmigration
The subject of David McWilliams column today is how the GAA transfer index shows a growing trend of emigration from Ireland.
According to the GCTI, emigration is on the increase from all over Ireland and it is recurring in precisely the age group that we need most — our young, fit people. What makes the change in the index all the more startling, is the dramatic turnaround in fortunes between the beginning of the year and now. In January, not one club player transferred to a club outside Ireland. This month, over one third of all transfers involved lads leaving the country and signing up for clubs in New York and London.
Ok, so I decided to look at the figures.
As you can see, January is usually very quiet and the summer months quiet busy. Jan 2004, Jan 2007 and Jan 2008 are all quiet low; indeed Jan 2004, when we would be in the middle of the boom, was busiest. The reason, I guess, has a lot to do with young people going abroad for the summer and playing in a GAA club in New York, London or Oz. Suggesting that the difference between Jan 2008 and summer 2008 is plain silly and a abuse of statistics. It is simply following the trend of Summer being more busy then January. Indeed in absolute terms Jun and july 2007 saw 235 people move abroad while Jun and July 2008 saw 223 people move. Basically, there is nothing statistically significant in these figures to show an increase in immigration.
I think there’s a little compromise to be reached here.
The GAA transfer stats don’t include people going to play abroad for the Summer - these guys are given ’sanctions’ which don’t appear as transfers, and so anything on those lists IS a full-transfer.
That said, you’re completely right in rubbishing the fact that there’s any more of these this summer than there is at any other time. With a membership of 900,000, it’s hardly an epidemic if a dozen or so people are moving abroad every month.
sanctions ehh fair enough. you learn something new every day
You don’t seriously expect a ‘Rock boy like McWilliams to understand the intricacies of the Gaa, do you?
Even Mark Vaughan had to have the basics explained to him…
The stats don’t make clear how much of the emigration is by Irish nationals. Does anyone know how much?
FT, are you suggesting there is some massive number of non-Irish nationals who are members of GAA clubs who are moving to clubs overseas? Or are you just trolling for something else to hang on the immigration banner?
DS I am just trying to get some hard numbers on the scale of emigration from Ireland and evidence of how much of it is Irish emigration, which is obviously relevant to this topic.
McWilliams is probably a pretty smart chap in his own way, but he’s a bit of a gobshite when it comes to certain everyday matters. I remember he was on the Late Late a few years back around the time that we sent those incest twins from Athlone to Eurovision. The male twin had apparently joked that he thought some famous Hollywood actor should play him in a proposed movie based on his life. Now the proposed actor was much older and of a completely different race if I recall correctly, so clearly incest-brother was taking the mickey. But McWilliams didn’t pick up on this and started a ‘deep and meaningful’ analysis of what this said about Ireland’s youth. When Pat Kenny stops you for failing to pick up on the humour in a situation, you know you’re not in touch with reality.
Sure, FT, cos the GAA player roster in all clubs is 100% representative of the full spectrum of Irish working adults.