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A resonant phrase
Read more about: Carlow-Kilkenny, Economy, Fianna Fail, Fine Gael
It’s not clear if Phil Hogan is deliberately trying to add to the anxiety level in the FF backbenches with a particular choice of words but the students of electoral history reading his statement today on inflation will recognise one particular reference. Hogan is reacting to predictions that there could be some steep price rises on essentials this winter; inflation is already around 4 percent and for baskets heavy in these essentials, inflation could be closer to 10 percent by December. Says Phil (ireland.com, subs. req’d):
“The prediction by AIB economist John Beggs that the price of essential items will increase by 10 per cent towards the end of this year, and that general inflation will reach 5 per cent, will send shivers down the spine of households across the country … With prices rising this fast we are facing into a winter of household discontent.”
Which is a reminder of the original winter of discontent, 1978-79. The key parallel with Bertie’s current predicament is Jim Callaghan’s decision not to have an election in the Autumn of 1978, that he had a decent chance of winning, and instead going for the limit of parliamentary terms by waiting until 1979. Now Bertie must feel that things can only get better in the next year, but Callaghan found out to his cost that they can get much worse — with winter itself perhaps contributing to the grumpiness factor. Indeed it was partly this experience that gave rise to the conventional wisdom of not waiting the full 5 years to call an election. Incidentally, Tony Blair should probably also be getting a refresher course in 1978 events: breezing in from a Caribbean holiday making light of angst at home doesn’t work very well.
Possibility of public sector strikes, check.
Public discontent, possible.
Willingness by elected leader to throw head into sand, also check.
Can see next may going belly up alright.
Moving beyond callaghan though, i think a disaster like 1979 for Fianna Fail could make 2007 a huge election in irish political history. A crumbling cleavage which disintegrates entirely. The electoral implications could be huge. As well as broader policy and politics.
Possibly, i could be getting carried away *dabs forhead with hankie*.
I won’t dissuade you from the more radical thoughts about what the next election could bring. What’s strange about the Dail is the relative stability it has exhibited despite the huge changes in underlying society but at some point one wonders if the build-up of changes finally attains critical mass and reflects itself at that level. We forget now how dominant the Ulster Unionists once seemed in NI politics and yet now down to 1 MP. Other examples could be cited. Even at this stage I still wouldn’t put a snap election past Bertie but for whatever reason, he’s decided that 2007 is the year.
I reckon your right, the Dail has absorbed a huge amount of change (possible function of low ideological difference/focus on delivery-management?). The changes taking place at the moment though seem to be sufficient in size among the younger generations to reformulate Dial politics. Narratives are beginning to matter. Our political culture is a bit unreactive tho so perhaps its a few elections before it kicks in-bearing in mind that with PR-stv FF should have come back to the pack long ago.
When you think this system used to deliver one party government and in 2004 gave them 32% of the vote? It seems inevitable at structural and individual levels.
But, unfortunately, no Garret analogue to try and fix things. We’re doomed!
“A crumbling cleavage which disintegrates entirely. The electoral implications could be huge. As well as broader policy and politics.
Possibly, i could be getting carried away *dabs forhead with hankie*.”
Crumbling Cleavage and a hankie? what are ye at at all?
But, unfortunately, no Garret analogue to try and fix things. We’re doomed!
Dan, i dunno, i just got carried away in the moment and also talking round this idea.
I dunno what the banana means, but it’s keeping perfect time with the Aphex Twin track I’m listening to.
Ahem, the original winter discontent was in William Shakespeare’s Richard III.
It began with ‘Now is the winter of our discontent made glorious summer by this son of York’ and unravelled to the desperate and doomed plea ‘A horse, a horse, my kingdom for a horse!’
Discuss.