What now boss? That pending WTO deal

The WTO talks are a little like the Tribunals. For the most part, progress is confined to a tiny box on page 8 of the Irish Times or Indo unless the leading lights drag it up the agenda. While both are meaningful in themselves and have great symbolic (on the perception of cleansing politics or committing to global justice) and practical (leading to the resignation of a Taoiseach and actually feeding the world’s poorest) importance, following their every twist and turn can be gruelling.

Of course they are also alike in another major respect - the political landmines they appear to manufacture. When not negotiating the finer points of a trade deal, Peter Mandelson has developed the political equivalent of a fertiliser bomb. Whether it goes off appears to be a function of our own political leaders. Before the Lisbon Referendum, the IFA sought and got assurances from government they would wield the veto over any WTO deal that was detrimental to Irish farming.

Not alone did Brian Cowen perform a very late about face to get the IFA to support Lisbon - a moot point as to whether it was too late or not, at least until September, he also gave up a mighty big hostage to fortune by using the word veto. For at the time it was widely briefed from the EU, USA, developing bloc and any other interested party that no deal was likely. Unless something moved before August we were going to be stuck with the status quo for at least two years. The reasons given often involved the change of leadership at the White House and the length of time before any new negotiating team was put in place, with their new brief, and the distance between all parties at the beginning of June. Too much work had to be done and their was not enough time.

The clock was not the only problem on this count though, the economy also posed major headaches for developed nations. This is, after all, the Doha round. A negotiation entered into in the spirit of justice and solidarity with the world’s poorest to get a trade deal that maximised the developmental potential and put first world interests second to those most in need. This principle was signed up to 2001 in Doha and has spawned many books on the topic*.

Now it seems that after seven odd years in the process, a deal is in sight. Sharpened minds often come with enforced deadlines and a deal is slowly coming together. Mary Coughlan was sent to Geneva to guage what is happening during the week. We get a lot of long-fingering from Brian Cowen, nothing will happen, too early to talk etc. etc. But surely the government must be frantic, if they aren’t they should be.

For political landmines dot the landscape as a deal comes into view. The IFA want their veto, the government promised their veto and may well have to delvier it or face worse consequences. A veto though would not just mean blocking the EU in their tracks once again but over 100 countries this time. A blocking manouvere of quasi-global proportions. On the one hand, angry farmers on the other a frustrated world.

The government made their bed during the Lisbon debate. They used the word veto, got IFA approval and we all knew it because it took two weeks. Now the IFA are stepping up pressure, getting their pitch in early. Plans are for a protest in Offaly in the coming days. They negotiatiors appear to be changing gear as well, moving toward a deal. Ireland, once again, is to be hurtled into the global spotlight as we become the potential spoilers for the latest intitiative by the global elite. It may be a bumpy summer holiday for the Taoiseach.

*Joseph Stiglitz’ Fair Trade for All is a book spelling out the mission and the means to achieve it, excellently written and a great book.