Phew - The Brief Sarkozy Visit

Not sure if it was the Veni Vedi Vici, as it was in the UK when Nicolas and Carla wowed and charmed all around them. Yet he came and he did no more damage. Indeed his press conference was typical Sarkozy fare, combative, unflinching with its own gallic twist - ‘if I come it is meddling, if I do not it is indifference’ (my own rough paraphrasing).

What is interesting is the timelines. It is something we are busy denying the existence of, but as P O Neill has pointed out elsewhere, Sarkozy and the EU are readily implementing a number of ‘time horizons’ which are being looked at to resolve Lisbon. Either by EU Parliament elections in June next year or the Autumnal renewal of the Commission - oh what fun that will be - we will need to know the rules of the game. Nice II or Lisbon? That is the question we are being looked at to answer.

Did Sarkozy learn the answers to this today? Not by a long shot, but one gets the impression he may have realised how difficult it is going to be to implement any quick sell. With no election pending where FF can claim a mandate for passing Lisbon piecemeal through the Dail, and no gumption to face the Collins solution of passing it right now and letting the supreme court decide - a game of political chicken with an electorate who might just punish you for it.

What was interesting in the flurry of handshakes, interpreters, blacked-out windows, Patricia McKenna, Coir and meetings was the lines coming from opposition. Any fracturing in the political consensus on Lisbon may well be terminal to any second vote, for such a splintering would ultimately legitimise the sort of European discourse where scepticism sits alongside pro-Europeanism. That fracturing could be successfully used for electoral purposes however, no doubt about it. So telling Sarkozy that we cannot simply rerun Lisbon, or ignore the important groups with EU problems, marks a brinksmanship which will drive government mad.

It is unlikely to come down to a fracturing but when one’s theoretical core vote is opposed to the party’s position, a rethink and a bit of shifting position is never beyond the realm of possibility. Turning down M. Sarkozy’s arrangements for meeting goes a long way to bolstering this trend, discernible almost from the instant the result was announced. Angry farmers, angry workers and a questioning middle class must tweak the antennae of an opposition which desperately needs to beat Fianna Fail when it matters.

But I digress, for in his visit M. Sarkozy is the centre of attention at all times. Flying in and out he got his information and - most likely - shared his mind where he felt he needed to. Did he save Europe? (Again) Not tonight Maureen. His windows of opportunity - which would be delivered irrespective of the country at the head of Europe, will shape our political discourse for the next six months. Whether this yields the desired result is the big question.