Irish Election are pleased to announce our collection of Irish 
A Fine Gael/ Labour/ Green Party Government On Its Way?
Read more about: Coalition, Government, Polls
The latest Sunday Business Post/RED C poll shows that the gap between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael remains steady. FF support increased by one percentage point from 34 to 35%, while Fine Gael has increased its recent gains by registering a 27% share of the first preference vote, one percentage point higher than June 2006.
However, for the current government the biggest problem lies in the continued drop in support for the Progressive Democrats.
The PDs’ support has halved since April. Add to this the fact that FF are not making their usual summer poll gains, and the government parties could face a major problem if things remain static until election time next year.
Taking the current positions, the current FF/PD coalition would command 37% of first preference votes. On the other hand, a FG/Labour coalition would receive 39%. If the rainbow was completed with the Green Party entering the fold, it would add up to 46%- a workable figure on which a government could be formed.
Of course, transfers must be taken into account, and polls only give an indication of what may happen- until the ballot boxes are opened, no one knows who will win.
Here are the July results in full:
Fianna Fáil: 35%, up 1
Fine Gael: 27%, up 1
Labour: 12%, unchanged
Sinn Féin: 10%, up 1
Green Party: 7%, unchanged
PDs: 2%, down 1
Independents: 7%, down 2
(Originally posted at www.elblogador.com)
I would be reluctant to read too much into this though El Mat. Since the error margin is +/-3% it is hard to say what the real figure is. It’s not good though. Harney seems to have thrown herself into health service reforms and neglected her leadership position. Though I would not be surprised to see her pulling back and turning to ’selling’ mode from the moment the Dail returns right up to election day.
I agree Mick, but the stagnation in itself should be cause for worry insofar as it appears to show the current government languishing in poll mediocrity in the long-term (although FF did post a rise of one percentage point).
Given the margin of error you mention, does that mean the PDs could get -1% of the vote?