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No Decision on Voting Again on Lisbon
Read more about: Fianna Fail, Government, Lisbon Treaty
It may be a catchy means of getting around the 9 and 15 month deadlines that seem to be naturally occuring to the EU leadership, but rerunning Lisbon next June in conjunction with European Parliament and Local elections has been ruled out by most parties. Not least because another ‘no’ vote could seep over into party suuport where it matters - bums on seats. The Mail this morning (surprise) reckons Sarkozy told the government Monday they would need to rerun a vote on something, what it is is up to them.
Michael Martin was his usual self, waffling and blustering (whenever he uses “in terms of” twice in one sentence or once in two successive sentences is the tell) his way through television and radio. In a piece for today’s Irish Times Jamie Smyth he repeats his coyness;
“People will need to know there are obvious timetables under what conditions certain things are going to happen.”
When asked if “clarity” meant the Government deciding whether to hold a second referendum on Lisbon, Mr Martin said it might not be on that issue alone as the Government was undecided.
“It was a tight enough election but it was a definitive decision against Lisbon as it stands. It’s far too soon to be speculating on whether you have another one or if you have another one,” said Mr Martin.
But while the Government is being pinned to a revote or a more creative Dail manouvere, like pushing it through and waiting for a Supreme Court challenge, the opposition are being a little more strident. If we are to run a vote again, how the hell do we run it? What will we vote on that is so substantially different? There is little or no way a government could successfuly pull this one off in my mind. I just don’t see it. Even allowing for passage of time - Lisbon is not Nice and the tactic is fraught with difficulty. I actually can see them trying to do it, with little creative manouvering appealing to them but I wonder if it might be a ‘nuclear’ option for their political future.
I think a re-run is possible, though by no means certain.
Here’s a thought experiment. Let’s suppose 6% of people who voted against did so because they wanted to retain a commissioner. Suppose also that the heads of goverment agree that they will invoke the clause that allows them to readjust the number of commissioners, and that all states will retain a commissioner. Now we have a scenario where a majority of voters might be in favour of Lisbon. We cannot know of course until we test them using the ballot box and there are other assurances which can be given. Likewise some Yes people might have reconsidered. But the point is, we might theoretcially arrive at a situation where most voters support Lisbon.
Of course I fully realise that this kind of jigging around doesn’t exactly bolster our democracy. But the fact that this kind of reductionism and picking can be thought about at all underlines another reason why it is possible to argue that a referendum is not the best instrument to decide on complex international treaties.
Tomaltach, I agree that such a situation is not only possible but indeed probably. Yet I am still unconvinced it would not have reprecussions which make it almost impossible to carry out - consider the attrition factor among yes voters who would abstain/vote no out of protest.
But the fact that this kind of reductionism and picking can be thought about at all underlines another reason why it is possible to argue that a referendum is not the best instrument to decide on complex international treaties.
Which makes me think that this may well be the outcome, piecemeal introduction of elements of the Lisbon Treaty via legislation and the Dail. Its politically unpopular but potentially less unpopular than rerunning the vote on Lisbon. I dont know if there is a third way, cos if there is the Government would want to find it - neither of these will generate goodwill.
I wouldn’t be surprised if part of the FF calculation is to hope for a mini-Tallaght strategy move by FG in which they jointly agree to push for the 2nd referendum or the nuclear option of parliamentary ratification. Note how the latter is already being portrayed as Gay Mitchell’s idea. As with the original Tallaght, probably an electoral disaster for FG and perhaps even would put the “end” in Enda. But you never know.