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Who are the ‘No’ voters?
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A very interesting analysis by Tony at Achem’s Blunt One on the nature of the ‘no’ camp. In light of today’s poll, it is likely to be a serious concern to strategists - at least it should - how to manage the voters from here on out. The yes side has a consistent majority in past referenda, the no side has a consistent committed 20-30% of the vote. So how do we explain the poll in light of these two facts?
Tony suggests looking at ‘active’ and ‘passive’ no voters and I think he is right; the success for the no side has been picking up ‘passive’ support thanks to better messages and an baffling treaty. Winning that vote round has to be the metric of success or failure for the yes side and the source of blame in the fallout. Winning over these two would be a start.
The passive ‘No’ is a more worrying long term problem. This Treaty is no more complex than any of the previous Euro-referendums, but people are now complaining that they don’t understand it and must vote ‘No’.
This fear of complexity didn’t arise in the past, because there was always some selling point for Ireland, and people focused on that rather than the fine detail… [more]
There’s another Lisbon poll out from Red C tomoro in the SBP. Curiously it seems to have been taken on the same 2 days (Tuesday and Wednesday) of this week but to have different findings:
Yes 42% (+1)
No 39% (+6)
(among those certain to vote - 50%):
Yes 46%
No 37%
DK 17%
With 6/7s of the DKs from last time going to the no side, I predict a narrow 51-49 victory for the no side next Thursday if that trend continues.