Twenty Junior Ministries Next Week as Progressive Democrat Founder Resigns Over Coalition

The Sunday Indo has been informed that Bertie Ahern will be proposing an increase in the number of junior ministries next week from 17 to 20. This is likely to accommodate the ambitions of the younger pups within the party who remain a bit peeved that senior ministries were unnecessarily given away in coalition.

The Tribune also carries a letter to Harney from the Progressive Democrat founder and honorary treasurer Paul Mackay resigned over coalition with Fianna Fail.

Mackay hints the coalition will mean that the PDs will be seen as a sub-office of Fianna Fail and that Mary Harney broke the rules in heading back into coalition without consulting. The report also states that Mackay was in favour of the Progressive Democrats supporting an alternative to Fianna Fail led government as a way of progressing the party.

I think it is interesting that the move to quell the revolt begins in earnest with the junior ministries. Bertie will no longer stand before the people for Taoiseach, barring a maor surprise. The move towards the new regime appear to begin with the annointing of Brian Cowen and one must assume that Cown has at least some modicum of input on Junior positions with an eye to keeping the party onside. It remains to be seen how many of those ambitious younger TDs (and some not so young TDs) will be placated by the move to increase the number of posts.

There is unlikely to be a heave in the coming years against the man who brought three consecutive terms in government, yet there can always be briefing as the party of government reverts to form in that factions align to crown the new king. Bertie’s handling of this reshuffle could well be the more important aspect of the duration which he is given in power before being forced off moving aside for the new leader.

Finally, the letter from Mackay is to be seen in the context of a party that has lost almost all its TDs, lost its leader, needs a strategy over five years to completely rejuvinate the party. There is a similarity to the narrative being put forward around the Labour party here. Labour ran independently in 2002, ran with Fine Gael this time round and both times suffered what were roundly seen as bad elections. There is an element of damned if you do and damned if you don’t. The Progressive Democrats ran as the party who dominated and motored government in 2002 and in 2007. In 2002 they were rewarded in 2007 they were decimated. There is a case now of damned if you do and damned if you don’t.

It is interesting that senior party figures would prefer a more open policy on coalition formation, it is something which I think (despite being highly unqualified to talk PD politics) the party needs. No longer to be seen as an adjunct of Fianna Fail and also a chance to remind people that they are a party in themselves who motor the ideas of a coalition. This time around it was a very big ask for them to jump ship, it will be interesting though if there is a mid-term crisis (a bloody big one, though) or in 2012 what strategy will be prosecuted.