Trouble in the PD’s the effects

So there is a leadership struggle in the PD’s. This really is not a big shock. In a party with a number of strong personalities. Mary Harney, Michael McDowell, Liz O’Donnell and Tom Parlon. It would seem a bit inevitable that something like this would occur. And while they may wish to keep it behind closed doors the fact that is now out in the open mean that it is going to dog the party coming into the next election. So how damaging is it going to be for the party and can it be in fact be beneficial.

 The PD’s on their website say that they are the liberal party of Ireland. But looking at them there is 2 very different liberalism in there. There is the economic liberals and there is the social liberals. Now while they criss-cross in views there is certain politicians who are more one then the other. To many of the social liberal side, McDowell is not the person they want. He is seen as a bit a too strong for many. And while many of his policies are quiet liberal such as civil partnership he does play them to the conservative electorate with the added “Gays don’t want to get married tag”. Something the more liberal wing of Liz O’Donnell would not I am guessing be too happy with. To much of the liberal side they like him in justice a department that requires a bit of stern stuff especially with issues around the IRA. However the idea of him being in charge of the party might frighten people away.

How will this effect the parties chances in the next election. The parties chances in the next election will be subject to much debate in the run up to the election and I wouldn’t go into it here. However they are more likely to lose seats then gain more seats. So will this put more pressure on them with people wondering if the party can stay together. Much of the parties support is based on the candidates. People voting for the name rather then the party unlike some other parties where the party and in particular the leader is important. Perhaps it could even help them with many people voting for them thinking McDowell is going to leave and others voting thinking McDowell is going to lead. With the recent statutory rape debacle and the trolleys on wards both sides of the divide have a burden to bear with the electorate. So I can’t see either wing having a leader with an electoral advantage.

Another issue to come into play would be what would happen Colm O’Gorman. Watching him on Questions and Answers. It is quiet clear that if he comes a TD he would become a very popular figure. His no nonsense attitude will pay dividends among people. But would he want to be in a party led by McDowell?

Another out come of a McDowell led party might be the return of Pat Cox. Former president of the European Parliament and former PD TD for Cork South Central. Left the PD’s in 1994 to run in the European Elections after losing the leadership battle with Mary Harney rumour has it that they do not get along. Would a McDowell leadership be more palatable for him. It is debatable (and probably doubtful) but if they got him back into the camp they would have a strong chance of regaining a seat in Cork. However would McDowell want a potential challenger into the party?Unlikely.

However another outcome could be for another break away from the party. With perhaps Colm O’Gorman, Pat Cox and Liz O’Donnell forming a breakaway party with some of the anti-Rabbitte sections of the Labour party the more liberal less socialist members to create a centrist party (think British Lib-Dems). This party could command quiet a few seats. However for this to happen it would require a crisis in the Labour Party ( Going into power with Fianna Fail maybe) and a total collapse in the PD’s.

Another scenario could be that in the event of this happening and Fianna Fail going into power with Labour. Could another new party be formed with McDowell at the head taking some of the more right wing elements of Fine Gael and Fianna Fail with him?

While that could result in a major restructing of Irish politics it is probably all idle speculation but hay that is half the fun of politics.