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Things are going from bad to worse for the PD’s
Read more about: Coalition, Progressive Democrats
While it is still a year away the next general election in Ireland is looking more and more like an impending disaster for the Progressive Democrats. In its first electoral campaign of 1987 it was a relatively big player sitting as the third biggest party in Dáil Eireann; since then it has featured in half of the Government coalitions to date. Now however things don’t look so positive.
The recent failures of the PD’s are no secret. Just one month ago Michael McDowell was at the centre of a sensitive crisis around Mr. A and statutory rape. The event passed without resignations or sackings but has left very visible scars on the minority coalition partner; Mary Harney made no qualms about criticising her colleagues failure and now the opposition parties are ensuring that the debate does not pass by without answers given.
In more recent times McDowell and Harney conducted an extremely public bust-up as the former made a bid for power, something that has raised questions about the ability of the party to lead a coherent fight for extra seats in 2007; the polls are saying that isn’t a probability either way.
Now health comes under the microscope yet again. Despite falling short of a roaring success Harney has managed to lead her way through the Department of Health, making some valid decisions and deflecting criticism as much as possible. Her latest mantra has been to claim that Ireland has one of the best healthcare systems in the world; in fact Newstalk listeners can hear that exact quote in their regular self-promoting clip for their news bulletins. The think-tank Health Consumer Powerhouse begs to differ and in fact disagree’s entirely with this assumption, putting Ireland 25th out of 26 European countries (comprising of the EU 25 and Switzerland).
The excuses have been delivered with great speed but with the PD’s and their two most recognisable faces leapfrogging from one crisis to the next it is hard to see where the problems will end for the party. There is still a year for them to turn things around but both McDowell and Harney have a key role in ensuring that happens. They may find success in their respective departments but with a shakey healthcare system and an ever prominent crime problem that looks very unlikely. Even party unity at this point may be too little too late.
It is all about the aftermath of the election. If the PDs are left with 3/4 seats and with Harney as leader then I suspect she will lead the wind up and merge with FG, while McDowell would probably take a more independent line but support FG/Lab as opposed to allowing FF and either SF or Lab do a deal.
Sorry, that should read “I suspect she will lead the wind up and merge with FF”
Was going to say that a FG-PD merger was unlikely!
Seeing McDowell work with rather than against Lab/FG is unlikely, my understanding is that he completely hates Rabbitte, for example… he would probably do anything to deny SF though, but I think they will be their own worst enemies in the coming years.
My wild prediction is the following; PD’s will do very badly but McDowell will be one of the fallen… outside of the Dáil he won’t stand a chance of becoming leader but he will become more vocal against Harney, within relatively little time he will form a new party (based on his ideals for the PD’s), taking some PD’s with him… it’s likely that Harney will be forced out of the PD’s although either way they will become a nothing party for some time…
Altogether I am certain that McDowell will fail in his re-election bid, and at best will fail in his leadership bid next year (leading to a party split). There’s no way he will run for leader, fail and then stay on… his ego is far too big.
McDowell couldnt form his own party, the reason is the age-old one, he is an electoral insecurity. There is no guarantee of McDowell getting any candidate seats indeed in some places it hinders you. The room for a party led by him is indeed smaller than that led by Harney.
Look at Bertie and Enda the rule is be less clear on position not more clear and if your certain be middle of the road. McDowell could not lead for the reason that those in a party of his looking for election would be too uncertain of their success.
I agree that his place in Dublin SE is far from sure, especially if the incinerator issue takes traction. Having said that Harney and her party are fighting for their lives at the next election. The swoop of OGorman may pay off but wexford has been one of the most consistent of all constituencies. There may be no room nor vote for o gorman and his compensation for the loss of parlon-now looking odds on- seems more and more border line.
The pds are in an odd place.
I disagree; if he fails in a serious leadership bit (with elections etc.) he’ll have little choice… going independent won’t satisfy his ego enough and he won’t wait around for his next chance at a power grab in the PD’s.
He may have marginal support, but if parties like Sinn Fein and the Socialists can bag seats in the Dail I’m sure there’s room for one more extreme minority party
I suspect that what is being debated here is accurate.
The tragedy is that these two people, Harney & McDowell, are heavy hitters; highly competent hard workers who can make an impact on the political scene.
Both have vision & energy and are not afraid to take harsh decisions.
Contrast them with the likes of Bertie Ahern - a cute survivor, but, in reality, a bonehead incompetent, ably assisted - in a programme of massive inaction (apart from the bounty heaped on the trade unions & the civil service) - by Martin Cullen - a major liability to progress; Seamus Brennan, scandalously sacked by Ahern for daring to upset his beloved comrades in the Union movement (such a misnomer!); Brian Cowen, undeniably able, but riding to orders from Ahern. Having produced one disastrous negative Budget, can we expect prudence in December? In a pig’s ass.
Michael Martin.
Who?
Can anyone remember anyone else in FF?
Like a Polo Mint - the party with a hole in it.
If Irish politics is going to lose all its able Ministers - and that includes Charlie McCreevy - we are facing a bleak future.
The opposition make noble generalisations about a war on Waste; reforms of Heath & Education and Crime.
But details; costings; a timetable. Where are they? We can’t vote for vague promises of better things to come. We must have facts and figures. Surely this is not beyond the abilty of Messrs Burton; Bruton (an apt anagram) & Gilmore etc…?
With interest rates poised to increase, possibly by 100 or more basis points before the General Election; Private Sector borrowings of €300 billion - or more; Banks increasing their bad debts reserves (if they are prudent); Building start-ups contracting (no pun intended); Tourism threatened by gridlock to & from Collinstown Airport, as well as on centre city roads; Rip-off prices in Hotels; restaurants; bars & night clubs…
With all these negatives, there are some horrors coming down the tracks for an incoming administartion.
And how will a New Government cope with this potential backlash in 2008, when the feelgood factor of the SSIA’s and a Cowen/Ahern giveaway Budget has evaporated into King-Size Bills?
Now is the time to build up serious reserves against the future uncertainties; to plan for the period after the meltdown of the recent housing boom; to deal with the explosive costs of the “Social Partnership” agreements; to put an end to political donations & the myth that there are no expectations on the part of those developers & builders who flock to the FF tent at Galway Races.
And one must keep a weather eye on the US, where decisions there have a direct impact on Ireland.
Time to reflect & consider serious changes.
A LOT UNDONE. EVERYTHING YET TO DO.