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Private Poll Shows Party Support Breakdown for Lisbon Referendum
Read more about: Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Government, Green Party, Irish Politics, Labour Party, Lisbon Treaty, Parties, Progressive Democrats, Sinn Féin
Missed this earlier today but didn’t spot it picked up here. Jamie Smyth got his hands on the confidential part of the Eurobarometer survey into the Lisbon result. The findings are interesting - also interesting they weren’t released. I would have guessed at who leaked were it not coming from Brussels correspondent.
LISBON: party supporters’ votes
PARTY YES NO
Fianna Fáil (41% of those surveyed said they support FF) 60% 40%
Fine Gael (20% of those surveyed said they support FG) 51% 49%
Labour (9% of those surveyed said they support Labour) 45% 55%
Green Party (6% of those surveyed said they support the Greens) 43% 57%
Sinn Féin (6% of those surveyed said they support Sinn Féin) 5% 95%
Progressive Democrats (2% of those surveyed said they support PDs) 69% 31%
All others 39% 61%
(17% of those surveyed said they didn’t remember or didn’t answer)
The Fianna Fail party will be relieved that nearly 2/3 of their voters who turned out supported the treaty. Fine Gael’s result does nothing in my mind to buttress Enda Kenny’s position. He is facing the election for his future next summer and it will be interesting to gauge his internal standing after the polls figures are digested. Perhaps most difficult is the relation that parties on the left now adopt with regard to Europe.
It is fair to say that EU policy is not a dividing cleavage in Irish politics. Voters do not go to hte polls and habitually support parties on the basis of their position on European integration. Be that as it may, Labour and Green party supportes did not support the treaty in the same proportion as the wider public 55%-45%. The line that they take towards their own support is very essential not least when we are asked to vote on a second Lisbon treaty but also next summer when they attack the pavement in search of votes. They will be asking these supporters to canvass and work for them as well as vote for them. What they do in the next few months may impact on their ability to do that.
The Greens may silently thank their luck that they didn’t get a firm position on Lisbon.
Probably those facts were kept back as Eurobarometer is supposed to be about citizens’ relationship with the EU. Eurobarometer is not normally party political.
Curiously the figures appear to show that among the people who answered the question a majority for the ‘yes’ side.
Questions have to be asked of Gilmore.He seems to be getting off scott free
Some further thoughts:
1. As far as the “confidential part of the Eurobarometer” report goes, the published report is the preliminary report. The details of all the questions asked, possibly including this one, should be in a more comprehensive final version. This is normal for Eurobarometer surveys.
2. I vaguely remember this kind of survey being done after the first Nice referendum. Does anyone know where we could find the details of that survey?
At least the SF voters followed party policy 95% thats pretty amazing. GRN and Lab clear majorities against as well i- message to their leaders. And FG - Enda Kenny! Come on!