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Lisbon or Doha?
Read more about: Agriculture and Rural, Lisbon Treaty
The World Food Summit being held by the Food and Agriculture Organisation in Rome today is likely to call for a successful conclusion of the Doha WTO talks (see for example the going-in position of the US Agriculture Secretary). This is symbolic of why Brian Cowen cannot make a formal commitment to veto an agreement for the EU partners as part of getting a Yes vote from the farmers — he could wind up being accused of taking food out of the mouths of poor people. Let’s see how understanding the IFA is of his predicament.
P,
The US just passed its own farm bill about a week ago. Their noises are positive because nobody wants to damage future prospects but their bill signals there belief, in my eyes, that there will be no deal. I have for several weeks thought that it was unlikely to happen. Signifcant movement in the EU towards a more realitic position on Agri matters with germany and France aligning more closely their attitudes to the WTO in recent weeks. Add in the Euro elections next year and the US elections this year and it will be hard to see a deal happening. As regards the position of EU agri matters most of the contentious issues were resolved by earlier eu steps to reform agri support so as to be less contentious. The issue at the wto is now about opening further the manufacturing and services sectors with the agri sector as the sacrificial lamb. Thats the main problem with the WTO negotiation position as is.
I dont think that the issue of taking food out the poor’s mouth comes into it. A market with no guidance will see food exported out of countries for a better price rather than sold to the indigenous poor. For this reason several states put in place restrictions on the export of foodstuffs at the start of the most recent price hike. The EU will take into account the danger of such restrictions for its food security as surely as it must look to respond to the threat to fuel security Russia’s erratic behaviour represents.
The image of a poor man hungry because of an irish farmer’s greed is emotive but its not much good to the poor man based as it is on the heart rather than the head.
I think you’re right. In any event the apparent wiggle to get the IFA support is that Cowen “reserves the right” to veto a WTO deal — which is well short of actually doing it under pre-specified conditions. The thinking is that presumably it will not such a sore issue by the time an actual WTO deal comes to the table — in 2009.
Thing is by next year we will have an agreed cap reform packacge aka the Cap Health Check and then in 2010 they will begin the negotiations for the next EU financial period which i think is 2013 to about 2018 (must double check). The tone set by the health check and the preparations for the next financial round will both involve immense downward pressure on supports to farmers. if the eu allows farmers the chance to produce without imposing stringent restrictions that dont apply to brazilian or other countries and the EU recognises that food security, food quality and the social capital aspects of farming are valuable and needs to be supported then farming has an okay future ahead of it.
As regards Cowen’s promise well I agree with you its fairly wish-washy. I can hear the song “one day at a time sweet Jesus” in the backround.