Turnout implications
Read more about: Election Results, Irish Election
Well we are going to speculating all weekend on where the transfers will be going, and we have been speculating for weeks on the result. So let’s speculate on the implications of a high turnout like Harry McGee is amongst others. A high turnout of what? Based on what I mean? A flawed register?
Let’s say the register is not that flawed, more people turning out to vote is good for whom?
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it can be spun any which way. I think SF will take some credit for this. They appear to have brought people out to vote that havent voted in a long time. I know that is true where I came from. Whether it translates into more than ten seats, we shal see.
I suspect a high turnout might be good for Bertie. Not sure why. Just a gut thing
I’m going to disagree on this one, Cian. A low turnout tends to benefit the status quo - so a large turnout is going to help non-government candidates.
As for SF geting the vote out - don’t be surprised if Lisa simpson’s cat, snowball II, ends up voing for SF!
In the past a good turnout favoured FF. But this time I think it will benefit SF. They were getting people out everywhere, very much in evidence here in Sligo. I was doubtful of SF’s chances here but I am seriously reviewing that opinion now. FF’s sitting TD could be in trouble - just the rumour that’s going around. And no surprise if Elvis, Jimi et all end up voting SF.
RTE’s Dave McCullagh reported tonight that it seems higher than 2002. Added the caveat that it’s very difficult to gauge from anecdotal evidence. We’ll know tomorrow. Still don’t think we will get anywhere close to the high turnouts in France. Are we less engaged and distanced? The French figures are incredibly high. Seem impossible to attain here.
I agree harry, but the French vote on a Sunday that puts us 5%-8% behind (the hobby horse again!)
Anecdotal evidence is all we have but it seems to be coming from everywhere. That is a good sign that this campaign seemed to work. I actually think there were noticable shifts to right left too in it (not a lot but certainly a great deal by irish election standards). The services versus economy argument gets people going on all sides.
It is interesting to know (but we never shall) how many turned up and werent on the register.
Great to hear commuters turning out to vote. The volatility of this election has just become an unknown quantity thanks to those votes.
Yes, Cian. a perceptible Right-Left Divide, for instance some few people in Kilkenny City were turning out to vote for “The PD over in Carlow”, “McDowell’s Man ” etc - though they have never ever laid eyes on him or heard of him before - and tonight they even seemed to have forgotten his name after voting for him No. 1. It is almost unheard of for Kilkenny City Number One votes to cross over 24 miles away into Carlow Town to an unknown candidate there. Last time it happened was with the Late Tom Nolan FF of Bagenalstown, Minister for Labour (MJ Nolan’s father) - that was organised by the ONE Emergency Ex-Servicemen of Kilkenny who served under their beloved Captain Tom in the Emergency. Cllr. Walter Lacey is the unknown PD attracting votes from the City of the Black-and-Amber to Carlow, on a Right Wing basis only it seems. There is no PD candidate in Kilkenny - McDowell couldn’t get anybody to volunteer, despite heavy advertising for a candidate in the “Kilkenny People” newspaper ! Almost as popular in Kilkenny as the PDs are Sinn Fein, all 3 OR 4 of them ! No, that turnout has nothing to do with Sinn Fein - it’s the Bertie Factor !
Well there you go. RTE exit poll puts FF at 41%.