Irish Election are pleased to announce our collection of Irish 
The Last RedC Tracking Poll on the Election
Read more about: Blogging, Irish Election, Polls
From the Business Post:
The general election race is too close to call on the eve of polling day, as the final tracking poll of the campaign suggests neither Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats nor Fine Gael, Labour and the Green Party will win sufficient Dail seats to form a government.
The latest figures for party support are: Fianna Fail 38 per cent (up two); Fine Gael 26 per cent (down one); Labour 11 per cent (no change); Sinn Fein 9 per cent (down one); Greens 6 per cent (down two); Progressive Democrats 3 per cent (up one); independents 7 per cent (up one).
The poll was conducted among 1000 voters on Monday 21 and Tuesday 22 of May.
Today’s numbers show a confirmation of a late move towards Fianna Fail, though at 38 per cent (up two points from the weekend), the party is likely to lose enough seats to make a coalition with the Progressive Democrats, even with the support of independents, impossible.
Support for Fine Gael shows some slippage at 26 per cent (down one point from the weekend) though the party’s vote is holding up well among those most likely to vote. Fine Gael is set for substantial gains, though if today’s numbers are repeated when the votes are counted, Enda Kenny will have difficulty winning sufficient seats to form a government with Labour and the Green Party.
Movement since the weekend numbers is marginal, though the Green Party drops by two points to six per cent. The Progressive Democrats gain one point to three per cent, while Sinn Fein drops a point to nine per cent. Support for the Labour Party remains steady at 11 per cent, while independents gain one to seven per cent.
The poll shows a further substantial drop in the numbers of undecideds, with just 8 per cent of the likely electorate now saying they have yet to make up their minds.
“Today’s numbers show a confirmation of a late move towards Fianna Fail, though at 38 per cent (up two points from the weekend), the party is likely to lose enough seats to make a coalition with the Progressive Democrats, even with the support of independents, impossible.”
I deffo don’t agree with that. In 1997 FF got 77 seats on just 39%. One thing the poll does show though is that the PDs are back in the game and facing a better election than feared. I expect we will keep 5-6 seats. I believe we are headed for a 1997 style result with no side having a majority and pro-FF Independents putting FF-PD in power.
I would also point out that in many constituencies e.g. Kerry South, DL, Carlow-Kilkenny, Mayo, Louth, Clare, FG are simply running too many candidates to gain seats. Constituency polls bear this out.
i should point all of that is lifted tho i am seeking link at moment. Not my comment but mister P Leahy
Here’s a link Cian here ya go
http://www.redcresearch.ie/documents/23rdMay07PollChartDeck.pdf
As stated the other day the % vote is virtually meaningless as its down to constituency by constituency and 60% in a 3 seater is not getting you anymore seats, likewise dropping from 60% to 51% in same constituency is not going to lose you a seat.
The Independents and the transfer or not from them will decide at least 8-10 seats.
25 years ago 47.6% was generaly accepted as the % required for a majority Govt, now I think it would be around 42-43% as the non transfers from independents and smaller parties make the equation vastly different.