The Election Narrative

So, exam done I re-emerge from the halls of academe to find a prospective bloodbath among the smaller parties. It is a major boost to the livelihoods of Fine Gael and to a lesser extent Fianna Fail. The tallies from across the country point up an exceptional job being done on the ground by Fianna Fail candidates in splitting and managing their vote effectively. Their were huge rumours (Evening Herald poll e.g.) that Fianna Fail was in meltdown territory and in the rurality there was massive breakdown in the division of areas between candidates. Instead we see tallies like those in Louth and Wicklow where FF have managed to take their vote and squeeze as much as possible from it.

Fine Gael too seem to have managed a similar stragey in certain areas (where they right the correct number of candidates) and are converting their percentages into seats. The big parties can both be said to have benefitted from the trend to alliances. There was not a lot of PD votes to cannibalise but what was there went to Fine Gael and Fianna Fail. The decrease in Labour, Greens and Sinn Fein prospects has to be pondered. There are many competing reasons which present themselves.

Were they lost in the noise of a big two party stand off, the likes of which has not been seen for many years?

Were they caught out believing the national narrative of progress for opposition and smaller parties?

Were they outdone by the greater resources of the larger parties?

Were their policies what let them down?  Their candidates?

I don’t know yet but these questions need to dominate any dissection of the election result. A squeeze of the smaller parties is not something that I like to see from a democratic perspective.

Lastly, in 2002 Labour ran independent, in 2007 they ran as coalition partner-both times saw major drops in support. Are they in terminal decline?  Will the PDs follow them with three or less TDs?