Spinning in the Time Tunnel. Or, Get Back, Get Back to 1977

So I was wrong. Everyone was. Before the time passes completely and the recent memory of the last week of the election campaign is wiped out of our collective memory by the inevitable rewrite once the negotiations for government begins, we should remember that everyone thought that Fianna Fail were going to get less than 2002, rather than more.

But now it’s like an episode of Time Tunnel, with the Irish electorate spinning round and round as they swirl back in time. A few days from now we’ll all land with a thump, scratch our heads and wonder whether its 2007 or 1977.

That was the last time we had a stonking great Fianna Fail majority, while teetering on the edge of economic meltdown.

While they don’t have an absolute majority yet, their rallying around the country would suggest that it might happen yet. And all we have to console ourselves is the possible demise of the Progressive Democrats (if only Mary Harney gets in should they change their name to the Progressive Democrat). We await the results of the bloodbath between John Gormley and Michael McDowell, who at time of writing have only 230 votes between them in Dublin South East.

Soon enough, we are bound to have the analysis of what caused the FF surge.

I’ve written before about Michael Marsh’s analysis that grassroots campaigning and personal contact with the voters seemed to garner votes for candidates in the 2002 election. Certainly it seems that the campaign at constituency level counted for far more than the tenor or execution of the national campaign. The rise for Fine Gael could be attributed to the absurd speed with which Enda Kenny hurtled himself around the country - even grabbing young boys mid stroll in order to pump their unwilling hands, without slowing down. Getting elected means getting out there, being seen, talking to people, have your photo taken with them, kissing babies. Real old school stuff.

But in Marsh’s article he shows that although a centrally managed campaign is increasingly important:

“the local element remains a significant part – many would say a critical part – of the operation. Parties may put much effort into deciding who should run in each constituency but they do so within severe constraints. Selection remains a local operation and central controls are largely indirect.”

Where there is more than one candidate voter management is brought to the fore. The constituency is carved up between them, and each candidate asks those in their area to give them the preference vote.

But Marsh’s analysis also shows that local campaigning works ‘by mobilizing or reinforcing the predispositions of those contacted directly’.

In my experience of the campaign I noticed how Fianna Fail certainly acted on this much more than any other party.

The first instance was when canvassers for Mary Hanafin came around to our door. They were one of the first to do so. They asked lots of questions and were eager to find out if my wife (I refuse to talk to them) had any issues. She mentioned something about the need for speed bumps on our road. We’ve kids and we live on a busy connecting road and traffic fairly hurtles along. So it’s a concern for us.

After that we got a letter from one of her party workers that the minister for education had sent a letter to Dun Laogahaire/Rathdown County Council about the matter. A few days later, we received another letter saying that they have acknowledge that they had received the letter. Later still, we got another one from Dun Laogahaire/Rathdown County Council stating that they had got Hanafin’s letter and that they are proceeding with the issue.

I was fairly cynical about this electioneering at the time, but now I’m just marveling at the genius of it.

So in terms of contact, we’ve already had a lot from Fianna Fail already. Eamon Gilmore also did the rounds, and took notes, but although he sent an acknowledgement letter we had no further contact.

Our contact with Fianna Fail didn’t end there however. While Bertie and Enda were making an appearance in Galway mid way through the election my wife received a text message telling her what time Bertie was to be in the city. She also got one from Fine Gael telling her about Enda’s immanent arrival.

Again we shrugged it off and were mildly offended by the idea that our mobile phone numbers had been made available to the political parties.

While the contact with Fine Gael ended there, it was to continue with Fianna Fail.

On Sunday evening, just as we were absorbing the news from the Irish Times TNS/MRBI poll that Fianna Fail were enjoying a surge to 41% of the vote, my wife got a recorded message from Bertie, encouraging her to help Fianna Fail, take the next steps forward.

Finally, on Wednesday, my wife had her last contact with An Taoiseach, as she received a confident, lets go the last mile and build on the peace and prosperity Fianna Fail have established and yes, take the Next Steps Forward.

On this anecdotal evidence it would seem that the party that had the most contact with voters on an individual basis got the most votes. Fianna Fails contact was far a head of the rest, and sure enough they’re far ahead in the polls.