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Inter Party Government - Not As Unlikely As You’d Think
Read more about: Coalition, Election Results, Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Government, Green Party, Labour Party, Progressive Democrats
While Mr Ahern is certainly in pole position in the race to form a new Government, it would be unwise to rule out Mr Kenny’s opportunity at this early stage.
RTÉ have reported today that Jackie Healy-Rae, Finian McGrath and Tony Gregory have all been contacted by Fine Gael, but not yet by Fianna Fáil. And, upon examination, the numbers are there for Mr Kenny. His biggest problem will be that Mr Ahern can outbid him for the services of almost any TD or party…
Let’s look at the individuals and groups involved:
Fine Gael themselves - would settle for 7 cabinet posts, including Taoiseach, plus Attorney General and Chief Whip. That’s pretty much what they were going to get from the Rainbow anyway.
Labour - are tied to FG regardless, and Mr Rabbitte has been making it more and more clear in recent days that he won’t do business with Fianna Fáil. Today’s Tribunal revelations make that slim chance even more unlikely. Would take 5 cabinet seats, including Finance, and EU Commissioner in 2009. Might even accept 4 cabinet jobs if it meant getting FF out of power.
Greens - would love to be in Government with anyone, and are open to offers. Would take 2 cabinet seats of their choice (other than Taoiseach, Finance & Health) and at least two juniors. Mr Ahern, however, would probably be able to offer them three cabinet posts if he had to. Both sides would quickly give Dan Boyle a Seanad seat, and probably allow one more too.
PDs - still carefully avoiding ruling out a Kenny-led Government. Would be allowed to keep Health, and probably some of their advisors (who they lose due to their dropping below certain thresholds of Dáil numbers). Might even get a Junior Ministry for Grealish, although that would be a big ask from either Ahern or Kenny. The biggest problem for Mr Kenny would be that Mary Harney would have to abandon her hospital co-location plans, or at least change them substantially to remove any financial benefit for developers. This may be too big an ask, but we don’t know how attached Ms Harney is to the idea.
Michael Lowry - would settle for a package for Tipperary, but is likely to offer his support to Mr Kenny unless Mr Ahern can double or triple what’s on offer. The easiest of the Independents to get onside for Fine Gael.
Finian McGrath - will want a Committee Chairmanship at the least, and possibly a Junior Ministry, alongside a package for disability services and/or Dublin North Central. May be tempted in if the Labour Party offer him membership and the nomination in the next General Election (local rival Derek McDowell is almost certainly finished now).
Beverly Cooper-Flynn - can be disposed of to the Ceann Comhairle’s chair until the bankruptcy hearings that will almost certainly end her political career and spark a By-Election in Mayo. Fine Gael will easily take that seat.
Tony Gregory - will be offered big packages by both sides, and will probably demand a Junior Ministry for either Drugs or Urban Renewal. Likely to get it from Mr Kenny, but not from Mr Ahern. Mr Ahern may, however, offer him Ceann Comhairle, which would be hard to refuse as it would bring him to retirement in the Dáil without having to seek election again.
Jackie Healy-Rae - the big ask. Will be brought onside with a big package for Kerry South, but would probably prefer to be in with Fianna Fáil than Fine Gael. Gaining his support for Mr Kenny would be a matter of outbidding Mr Ahern substantially. Do-able, but not easy.
Adding up the numbers, therefore, we have:
FG - 51
Labour - 20 (=71)
Green - 6 (=77)
PD - 2 (=79)
Lowry - 1 (=80)
McGrath - 1 (=81)
Gregory - 1 (=82)
Healy-Rae - 1 (=83)
Cooper-Flynn in the Chair
This would leave Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin as the only Opposition groups.
It’s unlikely to happen, but not as unlikely as one would think at first glance. It happened in 1948 under different circumstances (de Valera being short of a majority and refusing to go into Coalition), so it could happen again.
Fianna Fáil’s reliance on Independents could be short lived. Healy-Rae’s health is poor, and there’s no guarantee Fianna Fáil or the Healy-Rae family would win a By-Election (FG topped the poll with a substantial lead No they didn’t - thanks James!). Cooper-Flynn is likely to be declared bankrupt before the Summer is out, leading to a By-Election in Mayo that Fine Gael would win easily. And the latest news from the Mahon Tribunal could, if substantiated, make it very difficult for McGrath, Gregory and/or Lowry to support Ahern.
Count nothing in; count nothing out. None of the scenarios are as unlikely as you think.
I gave this option an almost 0.01% chance in my blog. But I’m impressed by your logic! However, the problems as I see it are: 1) Greens + PDs - unlikely!!, 2) FF can cut a single deal with either PDs or SF or the Greens or Labour, thus giving them the ability to play one off the others. And that can continue for five years! It would be inherently unstable. Finally, 3) Would it be wise for Kenny to adopt all these stray mongrels, have his coalition brought down mid-term and then get the blame. FG would be thumped right back down to 31 seats. I don’t know if he wants it badly enough.
The Mahon Tribunal complicates the matter of government formation. The cloud over Ahern will surely create a different atmosphere for these negotiations. Or perhaps there will be a super-group of tarnished politicians - Ahern, Flynn, Lowry plus the PDs.
Not as unlikely as you’d think, maybe. But still very, very unlikely. Even if Ahern is taken out by Mahon in the next two weeks, then Cowen (or D Ahern or Lenihan or Hanifin, etc) would still have the widest choice of options.
why is everyone discounting Jakie Healy rae for the chair? I have said it a few times and everyone laughs at me. I am serious. he is the most FFer of the lot and most likely to jump ship. This way he can’t
“Healy-Rae’s health is poor, and there’s no guarantee Fianna Fáil or the Healy-Rae family would win a By-Election (FG topped the poll with a substantial lead). ”
This is factually incorrect O’DONOGHUE, John FF topped the poll. FG+Lab got 38.9% FF got 40.7 and Healy-Rae 15.4 most of which are not FG/Lab supporters.
This is just too far-fetched for me. Surely to Jaysus Labour couldn’t stomach Harney holding on to Health??? I know that many in the PLP are horrified at five more years in opposition and, for some of them, that this scenario is a (very slim) last chance of ever holding office. But I can’t believe they would saunter into government without bagging the Health portfolio. Could they? I hope they’re not that bloody desperate…
Kenny should try his best for this possible scenario as he will not have gained any more experience in Govt otherwise in 5yrs time and i believe his personality and lack of baggage would help him hold the group together. Fgb needs to be in Govt or many of the great TDs will not have experience or credibility. Go for it.
No way Labour would go into a government where the PD’s held a Cabinet seat - never mind continuing with the privatisation of health care.
Remember, it would need to get through a Labour Special Delegate Conference.
Dermot L what if the choice is PD’s in with Fianna Fail or PD’s in where you have influence on them?
False choice, Simon. As Rabbitte is oft to quote, the ‘national interest’ falls on more shoulders than those in the Labour Party.
Sometimes, power isn’t everything - particularly when political principles are so obviously compromised. Any fair long-term analysis would respect Labour’s place in opposition.
What happens in the event of a hung vote? It happened in 1989, as I explain in my own blog. That’s an interesting outcome of this debate about alternative coalitions.
DOES ANYONE REALLY GIVE A SHIT ABOUT THE MAHON TRIBUNAL ?????
Yes, I do. I care about whether my Taoiseach for the last 10 years has been lying or not.
Well I think its a total waste of my money.
Nothing more than a gravy train for lawyers. A pure whore like yourself may thinks its a valuable use of public money but I would prefer to see the hundreds of millions used to educate autistic children and to pay the salary of carers and not the salaries of senior counsel dossing around Dublin Castle. So Bertie Aherne told a lie. Who hasn’t and who cares.
If Ahearne was corrupt they would have uncovered it by now.
So Bertie Aherne told a lie. Who hasn’t and who cares.
What matters is that he told lies about what he did or did not do with money he given to him when he was a senior member of the Government. The fact that he is now my (MY) Taoiseach means I care very much whether he is telling the truth or not. If he can lie over this, what else will he lie over? I can’t trust him.
Are you willing to take that risk? Have we learned nothing of the Haughey years?
If Ahearne was corrupt they would have uncovered it by now.
Did you say that about Charlie Haughey as well? How about Ray Burke?
How can this not be a problem for you?
Look I hated Haughey and Ray Burke as much as anyone. Its one of the reasons I admire people like Desmond O’Malley and Mary Harney. However in fairness to Aherne I honestly do not think he is currupt. He lives in a tiny house in Drumcondra for fucks sake. Hardly the trapping of someone on the major take.
I have genuine concerns about the Mahon Tribunal, the cost of it is a scandalous waste of public money. I doubt anything will come out of it. Its time to call a halt to Mahon and move on. Spend the maney on something more deserving.
Thing is Dermot is the integrity of the Taoiseach. I for one don’t think he is corrupt but don’t think he is being 100% honest either.
There is a point on the expense of the tribunel’s but is their a cheaper way of doing it because it does need to be done?
Jackie Healy Rae’s health is NOT poor, his mom lived well into her nineties and Jackie is in perfect health!