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How to go about forming an FG lead government
Read more about: Coalition, Election Results, Fine Gael, Government
I know most people will think this belongs in the realm of pure fantasy, but at this point in time we are looking at FG 51 + Lab 20 + Grn 6 = 77
If the PDs decide they have no future as a party then moves should be made to do the following
- Elect Mary Harney as Ceann Comhairle, on the proviso that she would step down in advance of the next election allowing Tony Gregory to be elected as Ceann Comhairle securing his support. It would appear that Mary Harney does not wish to be leader of a party that requires considerable rebuilding and also that she was always planning on leaving the Oireachtas at the end of this the 30th Dail.
- Get Noel Grealish to join FG with the certainty of being an FG candidate for Galway West next time.
- Do a deal with Jackie Healy Rae which includes making one of his sons a Taoiseach’s nominee for the Seanad giving him the profile to succeed Jackie next time out.
- Sort out some packages that would satisfy McGrath and Lowry over the lifetime of the government.
That would give FG 52 + Lab 20 + Grn 6 = 78 + TG1 + ML1 + BF1 + JHR1 +FMcG = 83
I would agree that this at this point in time might not seem the most likely of outcomes but those measures should be explored because while they might not result in a government lead by FG this year we may yet see one in the next 2/3 years.
Bev may have to step down inside the next 12 months if the RTe suit for bankruptcy is successful. This would result in a bye election that FG might well win if it were to happen when such a result would lead to a Mayo Taoiseach.
It is noteworthy that while the last few Dails have had no bye elections due to members passing away that some such as Jackie Healy Rae, Mary O’Rourke and Michael Woods are, as the sayings goes, getting on in years indeed all three are over 70 at this point. That is not something I’m exactly wishing for but we need to be realistic about the possibilities that might arise during the lifetime of the Dail.
So I am basically saying that I think that a new FF lead government might well not last 5 years. Of course my predictions on the election results were pretty off the mark so I will hold my hands up and admit my credibility on this might be viewed by some as being weak.
It’s an amusing idea (and the look on Bertie’s face would be fecking priceless!) but there’s a lot of conditions to this scenario. While the opposition is welcome to try, I think it might be ambitious right now.
My take is that I don’t think this Dail will last five years: would FF plus Indies last? If you look at the age profile in FF [some of them reminded me of the old Soviet Politburo, thawed out of stasis for the campaign]. That comment goes for some of the Indies too. I suggest that (like Major’s 1992 govt in the UK) attrition and scandals will weaken them and people will find Cowen closer to Dick Cheney than Gordon Brown.
An inter-party government is possible but is it practical just to keep FF out of office? Probably not.. Is it even possible? Yes but highly unlikely, FG/Lab/PD’s/Greens/Ind’s and SF who knows? It is impossible to apprehend but theoretically possible, but likewise very unstable, but weirder things have happened, just look at 1948..
While unlikely to succeed, this has strategy is worth pursing. It serves to remind the public how tight this election actually was, and will also force FF to pay a higher price for the support of their independents.
I guess it may not work right now but in 2/3 years time the numbers might be different. Unless Bertie gets Labour to do a deal of course. So in some senses it isn’t 1997 all over again it is 1992 all over again.
Dan, if it’s 1992 all over, does that not imply that in three years FG will do the deal with SF?
not a hope lads. 78 ff + 2 pd + 4 ind = majority government. and do remember it worked 1997 to 2002 for FF using independants. theres more of a chance the pds re-merging with ff than supporting fg. goodbye enda and good riddance!!!
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Eoin Fitz, I would agree that your suggestion is more straightforward from a numbers point of view. But say McGrath and Gregory take a view that FG and FF are much the same then would Finian McGrath and Tony Gregory find it easier to be in a deal with the PDs or Labour and the Greens?
Also, will Harney ditch co-location? I can’t see Finian McGrath and Tony Gregory being too inclined to support that. The other thing to consider is that 2 years down the line we’ll be sending a replacement to Europe as EU commissioner.
I suppose what I’m saying is the numbers are tight and those numbers may not remain the same over the next 2/3 years.
Interesting i think making jakie healy ceann chorille would be a better bet.
It would certainly be interesting! In fact it could make Oireachtas Report into a top rated sit-com.
ya it would be great also drops a pro-FF TD. Remember Flynn has the ability to prop up a mayo taoiseach that would be the temptation for her. Not going to happen but would be interesting
And Bev has the potential to find herself outside the Dail once RTe keep pursuing their case for the costs from that legal case. Interesting if Flynn might ask the government to lean on RTe to back off. Imagine a government dependent on someone who could be declared bankrupt who is getting the claimant - the state broadcaster to back off.
Dynamite stuff.
That combo wouldn’t hold up. It would be over within months, giving lie to the fact that FF are the only ones capable of running stable government. In any case, the electorate, rightly or wrongly have voted for a FF led government. They just didn’t want the PD’s. I think the PD’s will remerge with FF bringing them up to 80. I think that then FF will go with the Greens rather than the Indos, as they may offer a less extracting proposition. Remember the Indo’s bar Gregory and Lowry, just made it back, all just beating FF candidates. Gergory or Lowry could be given CC roll. On the other hand,Flynn is too unstable to rely on support as she may not be there for the whole term and Jackie is not getting any younger. If either were not to see out the full term of the next Dail, then I think FF would win the two by-elections. If that happened then FF would be up to 82 during the course of the next Dail. But still the Greens are the most stable option. Lenehian on 100fm at the moment, giving a subtle hint at possibility of deal with the Greens.
I think FF would be best placed to win Kerry South in a by-election but not Mayo if it meant making Enda Taoiseach.