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Fine Gael 2002 to 2007 Seat %
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A visible blue tide has moved Fine Gael back to 1997 levels.
Fine Gael has had an incredible performance in this election, the above images show the percent proportion of seats per constituency based upon the number of seats available for each particular constituency. I’ve created this graphic as I felt today’s Irish Times graphics with first perference votes were misleading to a degree given that it is a PR-STV system we live in and that it really is how the seats end up that is the actual result when transfers are included. To borrow an often used phrase, “A lot done, more to do“. At this point, with the Seanad elections now looming and many of the upcoming Fine Gael candidates successful we can expect to see a good crop of new Fine Gael Senators in the next Dail. Fine Gael may require a two election strategy to return to power but the results of this election will provide a very solid foundation upon which to build.
EDIT: The graphic has been updated to reflect Dr. James Reilly’s election in Dublin North.
a very interesting illustration, it shows how FG completed 70% of the job in getting their seats back up nicking 2 (even 3) in places. Still the intersting questions are (from my point of view);
1) Where did those votes come from? An analysis of vote share suggests the smaller parties suffered from this. Transfers however did keep them static. FF may have done the damage to SF
2) Was the strategy able to deliver on final seats for either FG or Lab? I think the answer there is mostly no.
Increase in turnout helped FG as they were so inept last time that people avoided voting for them.
FG have no chance of ever forming a Govt on their own and will always relying on a coalition.
People seem to assume that FF got lucky in this election rather than the hard work of a well oiled machine, look at who topped the poll and where. In quite a number of constituencies the vote management worked spectacularly well such that after a couple of counts the FFer’s could retire to the pub as it was over for them.
Getting to where you were 10 yrs ago while your opponents have spent 10 yrs in Govt is not a success.
Cian, I would suggest that perhaps the smaller parties suffered from votes going to FF from those who wanted Bertie as Taoiseach with FG taking votes from those who definitely didn’t want Bertie. I suspect a hidden aspect of the election (though some referred to it on the RTe coverage as being shown up in the exit poll) that while the gap between Bertie and Enda was much less than that between Noonan and Bertie, it is also possible that Bertie has become that bit more of a polarising figure than in previous times.
I think Dan is right the electorate was polarised this time, in two ways. Those who wanted Bertie and those who wanted Enda but also in one other way, those outside of Dublin who haven’t seen the benefits of the Irish boom and those within the Pale who have. I might do another graphic with the final percentages of FG votes but even looking at the Irish Times first perference diagram in Saturday’s paper shows one distinct pattern, from Donegal in a straight line done the country, more people to the west of that line felt that FG was the engine for change that they desired.
I think it was the fall of the indo’s that benefited FG