Enter the centre

(just a quick observation on the emerging result which can probably be filed under the “state the obvious” category)

This election’s campaign was laden with criticism from many who felt that there was no choice for voters. On issues like income tax, stamp duty, hospital beds and Gardaí numbers this was largely true but it is now obvious that the public wanted these similarities.

There was undoubtably a rush to the centre by all parties in this election - even Sinn Fein “normalised” its stance on corporation tax to put it in line with its potential suitors. With that in mind, however, the smaller parties have remained on their respective sides of the idealogical divide, albeit closer to the middle ground than before.

But to the benefit of those who got the dead centre first; every other party, left or right, has been “squeezed” or has at the very least failed to live up to expectations.

Labour were expected to at least hold their 2002 seats and possibly gain a handful, but are set to make losses. The Green Party were rumoured to take ten, maybe twelve seats but they have not (and have lost a prominent member, Dan Boyle). The Progressive Democrats, while expected to drop in support, have collapsed in a way that no pundit would have dared suggest 48 hours ago. Sinn Fein, another party set to make serious gains, are on their way towards an overall loss and have completely and totally failed to make gains in any of their target constituencies. The Socialist Party has lost it’s only representative and their great hope for 2007, Clare Daly, is not looking on to take his place.

I can’t help but feel as though this trend will reverse completely in the next general election, whenever it is. This will happen particularly if things like the economy change, or the health service is still in the situation it’s in today. Certain segments of the Irish electorate seem to work in swings and they influence the overall trend. Independent’s numbers rise and fall and rise again. The PDs boom and bust and boom again (although this bust looks certain to be fatal).

What the two major parties now have to worry about is, when the swing goes away from the centre again will it come from within their base, or the other guy’s?