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Drogheda Independent Poll for Louth Suggests Tough Fight
Read more about: Irish Election, Irish Politics, Louth, Polls
It is interesting to see how the last few weeks of campaigning play out in local polls. With attaching health warnings comes today’s snapshot into Louth for the Drogheda Indo. It is a four seater again this time out. At the head of the pack is Foreign Affairs Minster Dermot Ahern on 22% (down 4% from Feb’s poll). Sinn Fein’s Arthur Morgan is on 15% while Fine Gael’s Fergus O Dowd is on 13%.
The last seat in most constituencies will decide this election, I feel and Louth is only supporting that intuition. There is a scrap on between sitting TD Seamus Kirk and Mairead McGuinness (FG) and Ged Nash (Lab) for the final seat. Kirk is on 10% the other two are on 9%. It is likely to change further on the way to polling day but the big question is likely to be asked of Fianna Fail’s election team, who do we ensure that we keep winning those final seats, while the opposition need to tack on those last seats to give them any hope of government in future.
Amazed that Ged Nash is doing so well. He might just sneak up the middle between the FG & FF 2nd candidates.
Just noticed from the source article that Deary of the Green Party is also on 9%. The battle for the last seat is wide open on those numbers. Kirk will get Ahern’s surplus, but that won’t get him in (even a 100% transfer rate would only take him to 12% on those numbers). It’ll be between him and whoever can stay ahead of the other three on that basis. They’re all transfer-friendly too.
Amazing how the Irish Indo reports this as something that FG are disappointed by in that McGuinness is down 5%. A more realistic reading is that this gives FG a fighting chance of two seats which was the whole point of her running.
Quite right Keith, in an effort at originality the indo managed to obscure half the results. It is indeed a four way race for that last seat. I think that means (as always) it is order of elmination that matters here and order of election for the top three.
Dan, I take the point I think the wider trend is as yet uncertain. FG, Labour and Green need to be taking these last seats while national polls are going well it is all about making the transfers drag one of the three over the line before Kirk.
The poll is interesting as it suggests it might happen but voters are not sure which candidate to go with yet