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Best Option for the PD’s?
Read more about: Progressive Democrats
So despite my prediction that the PD’s would be unable to put Fine Gael or Fianna Fail in power, it looks like they could be putting both parties in. Go fig. But if the PD’s are going to chose a coalition which one is best.
The first choice of Fianna Fail has the obvious value of letting Mary Harney get the Health ministry. The reason for this is that Mary Harney believes, I think, that she can improve the health service. Maybe she is wrong but I certainly do think she is not doing it to line people’s pockets. The thinking is that if it works come next election they can say that their policy that the rest disagreed with worked. And that certainly would bolster their election chances.
Going in with the super rainbow it would be assumed that she would not get Health with people thinking that she would get enterprise or something similar and not controversial. But what if they did give her Health. Would the PD’s drop co-location? Could there be a compromise like private hospitals renting rather then owning the land or something similar? I would guess the PD’s would not want to drop it and Labour would not be wanting to run with it. But is there a compromise in it, are positions that absolute opposed to it? Not sure, but certainly going in with FF gives them more freedom on that issue.
But what of the advantages for the PD’s of going in with the Rainbow? The obvious one is that is aligns itself with a party that is not Fianna Fail letting them highlight their independence from them. This election PD’s were reliant on transfers from FF this might make some other transfer to them that who might like them think a vote for PD’s is a vote for FF. Whether there is people who would do this is another question.
The other option is to join a party and that party is far more likely to be Fianna Fail than Fine Gael
Personally my preferred option would be FF/Green/PD allowing the PD’s to reinforce their social liberal side and continue their work, getting the dynamism and honesty of the Greens in power and being a relatively stable government but that ain’t going to happen.
So who should they pick? Basically it seems to be a choice between Health reform or Independence. If you were the PD’s what would you do?
I am a PD member and prefer a Coalition with FF but with the option of going in with FG at some future stage provided we can get some of our bottom-line policies implemented - specifically co-location. The advantage for us would be that if some serious scandal came out that made remaining in govt with FF untenable, we could then - perhaps after by-elections/Independent defections or whatever that changed the arithmetic - join another arrangement provided we could get our policies implemented. I just find it very, very hard to believe Labour - having rejected a Rainbow with us in 1992/4, would not go about-face - especially considering Labour is still very much a leftwing party on questions of privatisation and greater private-sector involvement in the health-service. BTW my understanding of the co-location plan is that the private-hospitals were to rent the land not have it handed to them on a plate.
The advantage for us would be that if some serious scandal came out that made remaining in govt with FF untenable
Are you serious Brian? Where have you been the last 9 months or so?! The Taoiseach has misled your former leader once before and appears to be guilty of misleading the electorate - how untenable do FF have to get before it’s too much for the PDs?
The numbers would certainly appear to suggest that FF/PDs and 3 indos would be the most likely deal (provided one of the other indos takes Ceann Comhairle).
However, I wonder if the DubIndos will be prepared to support co-Location or if the PDs are prepared to drop it. It depends on the language over the next 2 weeks because the DubIndos and the PDs could via the media talk themselves into mutually exclusive positions. If that meant that the only deal possible then was dependent totally on Lowry, Healy Rae and Flynn we would be looking at a very short Dail.
The PDs would be taking a huge gamble on co-Location showing results before the next general and I can’t see that happening, whatever about the merits of the idea, for practical reasons like the delay in construction and so on.
You are all missing the inevitable fact that the next coalition will be between
FF and Labour. Most of the Labour leadership are aware that they are approaching the wrong
side of 60 and if the want to serve a cabinet they have to do so now. They have to decide if it is more importantto them to replace FF or implement policy.
FF will no doubt play hard ball and and should concede no more than four seats at cabinet ( not including finance)to the Labour party. Barring a scandal this should mean stable government for the next ten years.Under those circumstances the PDs should wrap things up and be proud of their record and the extraordinary influence they have had on this country for the past 25 years. It should be left to individual members of the PDs to decide what they wish to do. Mary Harney should rejoin FF and return to the Department of Health.
Things look ominous for FG who can look forward to another 25 years in “opposition”. No doubt we will get some new dreg as party leader.
If FF/Labour do form a government it will obviously hve serious implications for FG who will be unable to rely on the “alliance for change” soundbite.
You are all missing the inevitable fact that the next coalition will be between
FF and Labour.
While it might be possible, I would not say it would be inevitable. How are you able to arrive at that conclusion?
If FF/Labour were to happen then Harney is not going to get Health, she might rejoin FF though. I would also suggest that FF/Labour would leave both open to attack from the left from SF and from the right and centre from FG while in government. Joining FF would have long term implications for the Labour most of all.
FG with the others is not going to happen - Enda Kenny is being absolutely ridiculus.
PD/FF/Labour too unstable. Jackie Healy’s health is an issue, as is Cooper Flynn’s finances.
Mcgrath and Gregory couldd’t be relied on to support a government.
Fianna Fail need stable government and know if a early election was called they would not retain 78 seats.
The Greens are totally useless on the issue of entering government and don’t appear to know what they want. They are utterly unpredictable and their behaviour since the election has been unsurprising. I beleive the Green party have ruled themselves out at this early stage through stupidity if nothing else.
That leaves Labour and FF. Rabitte, Gilmore & Co are ambitious and know full well that this may be one of their last chances to hold a cabint position together with the established labour policy of saying the won’t for a government with FF and then doing the exact opposite.
The Greens are totally useless on the issue of entering government and don’t appear to know what they want. They are utterly unpredictable and their behaviour since the election has been unsurprising. I beleive the Green party have ruled themselves out at this early stage through stupidity if nothing else.
So far as I know they haven’t done anything yet. Don’t let your bias show too much
Ian,
The Green Party declined an invitation to appear on Question and Answers which would have given them an opportunity to indicate to me and you what their preference would be. Why? Because they don’t know what to do.
Trevor Sargents assertion that he would not lead The Greens into coalition with FF was stupid. as was his claim that he is going “to clean up Fianna Fail” ( did you notice Brain Cowens response) as is his stated priority to ban corporate donations which FF will never agree to. If you think that the Greens are doing a fine Job of it fair enough, I don’t and I think i’m entitled to mu opinion without accusations of bias.
Brian Boru should get out more. Labour has become a moderate centre-left social democratic party. It just shows how far to the right the PDs are that they seem to believe their own McCarthyite red-scare propoganda.
Labour won’t go into coalition for the simple reason that the vast majority of members don’t want to do business with the FF leadership. It may be somewhat surprising for the more authoritarian organisations but Labour TDs are bound by their mandatefrom the party.
In the same way, maybe even more so, the Greens will have to consult their membership. I can’t see local Green members voting for going into power with the Buider’s Party. At a minimum the M3 project will have to be re-outed, a solution found to to the Rossport debacle and FF must say goodbye to their jaunt to Galway this summer. Unlikely
FF will do a deal with the PDs and the exFF - and therefore there will be another election within 2 years.
Gordon
which would have given them an opportunity to indicate to me and you what their preference would be.
They don’t know yet. They have to ask their party members. The leaders don’t dictate policy.
John Gormley during the Rumble in Ranelagh said that the next government
would be a FG/Lab/Green Alliance. He didn’t see fit to consult any party members then.
John Gormley during the Rumble in Ranelagh said that the next government
would be a FG/Lab/Green Alliance. He didn’t see fit to consult any party members then.
But that was an opinion, and was in fact the party’s policy - to remove Fianna Fail from government.
Gordon
There is nothing more annoying than having to listen to members of the Labour party
drone on and on about how right wing the PDs were. The fact is that diffence between
Labour and the PDs was waffer thin. The both support tax cuts, low rates of CGT,Corporation Tax, Balance budgets. The PDs on the other hand never supported the tax amnesty for tax Cheats introduced at the behest of Labour. Neither should anyone forget that the Labour party have made a habit of deceiving the electorate by promising to put FF out of power and then doing the exact opposite. When were the Party members when Dick Spring entered Coalition with FF.
You appear to have skipped neatly around the Green party point you made, but I’m sure no-one has noticed
You appear to have skipped neatly around the Green party point you made, but I’m sure no-one has noticed
I am sure no one has noticed the subject of my post has been skipped but no harm interesting discussion non the less
The Greens said they wanted FF out of government not sure they meant will definitely put FF out of government. I.E first choice FF out second choice FF in with ban on corporate donations etc. If you get me. That was certainly my reading of it.
Not at all mate. Apart from you and me I’m not to sure anyone is to bothered anymore.
Anyway it strikes me as a little ambitious even in the deluded world of the Green Party
that the policy was to remove Fianna Fail from office having had only 6 outgoing TD’s.
I am sure no one has noticed the subject of my post has been skipped but no harm interesting discussion non the less
To be honest I have yet to read it. I’ll get straight to it.
Anyway it strikes me as a little ambitious even in the deluded world of the Green Party
that the policy was to remove Fianna Fail from office having had only 6 outgoing TD’s.
Very true, though it the Rainbow Coalition came close at least.
And had the Greens formally joined the alliance then maybe…..
Personally I think the PDs should join Fianna Fail. If they did this Harney would nearly guarantee herself Health. I doubt the Greens would be happy going into coalition with the PDs, but if they were part of Fianna Fail it doesn’t seem as bad.
I can’t see them joining the Rainbow coalition. Harney wants Health, and they wont give it to her. End of story.
And had the Greens formally joined the alliance then maybe…..
I’m not so sure. They probably would have only gotten 3rd preference at best from most, and they mostly got transfers from the rainbow anyway. Dan Boyle might have gotten in though, given the small gap.
I still believe there is room in the Irish political-spectrum for an economic-liberal party in the classical European mould - after all nearly every other does. A choice between Centrism and Leftism, which failed this country before my party was founded, can only be bad for the country in the long-term. And Gordon Davies, if Labour has moved closer to the Centre, it is only because my party has dictated the economic agenda for 20 yrs in terms of issues like income-tax, and stamp-duty. Likewise we have dictated it in the social-arena on issues like divorce, legalisation of homosexuality/contraception etc. Whatever the future holds for the party - which will be decided by the electorate and not just our traditional critics on the Left - we can take pride in having broken the mould in Irish politics and bequeathing the Celtic Tiger. Labour on the other hand can only claim credit for giving us the punitive taxation that my party sorted out in the first place.
“after all nearly every other does. ”
I meant nearly every other country has such a party.
Dear Dear Boru……
Blogs are quite generous in allowing contributors to follow their fancy.
Please have a go at thinking.
Is the average tax paying citizen of Ireland getting value from the HSE?
Is liberal reform, like pure intellect, often the most expedient form of error?
Do you think Mary Harney’s moral credibility will be tarnished by taking a leg up from Cooper-Flynn and Lowry?