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A possible explanation why the FF campaign is so bad to date.
Read more about: Fianna Fail
A lot of people are wondering how in God’s name can FF, the most electorally successful political machine in modern Irish history, be still making such a mess of their election campaign, especially when they were the sole ones in possession of that most basic piece of information - the date.
My theory is this. All previous FF leaders had factions that supported them in becoming leader, in contrast Ahern became leader almost by acclamation after the removal of Albert Reynolds. So in basic terms Bertie doesn’t have a large grouping of loyalists around him who were the main drivers in getting him elected, a posse if you will, within the party to go to for advice or to bounce ideas off - barring his brothers and the local hangers on in Central. So he is pretty much alone in the entire affair.
Now people might reasonably ask why was this not an issue in 2002, well, my guess is that a key factor in the ideas area for the previous government was Charlie McCreevy. And I believe that the 2002 Election campaign was in fact planned and executed by McCreevy with the assistance of others such as PJ Mara.
This time out it is solely Ahern who is doing the directing and he is just terrible at it. Remember Bertie has never been a decisive leader. He prefers instead to let decisions make themselves. So the absence of McCreevy is why FF are making a hash of it and I can’t see any of the current ministerial line-up offering or being allowed to step up and rescue the train wreck that is FF’s campaign.
So by that logic John Deasy not Enda Kenny is the man responsible for Fine Gael success.
You mean the absence of John Deasy?
I think the issue goes more broadly to the calibre of Bertie and the people around him. He has seemed extremely amateur in various respects, not least in his apparent lack of awareness of Mary’s travel plans. But also, PJ Mara has been around a long time now. I thought he had retired to Kinvara for good after the last election. I also think that the FF Cabinet besides Cowen is very weak (and Cowen is left in a tricky position with the stamp duty U-turn). I’m willing to bet that the average person in the street is more likely to be able to name two PD ministers and their portfolios than the same test for FF ministers. Here’s another example of how diluted and buffoonish they can seem: was it Dick Roche that turned the M3 sod the other day or had to shut the operation down 24 hours later?
There’s also FF’s attempts to run presidential style government a la Blair, including the proliferation of SpAds (as Guido calls them) around Bertie but maybe then there’s a mismatch between traditional parish pump politics and trying to run everything out of Bertie’s office. Finally, many chickens have come home to roost. The tribunals nicely kicked the early 90s to touch and allowed 10 years of power. But the underlying dodgy dealing was never sorted out. Benchmarking did nothing to reform the public sector. And the boom couldn’t last forever.
Two good pieces of analysis there I have to say from Dan and P. I agree in a sense Dan that a leader doesnt lead in a vacuum however all leaders lose their base eventually (take your examples from whomever you wish-Maggie, Blair, Lynch, Haughey, Bruton…..). That Bertie had less to lose speaks a lot for his ability to keep everyone onside and in position. However when the dirt hits the fan it is when the big guns are needed and Cowen was busy fire-fighting stamp duty and the sindo.
I agree with you P that there was a suspended animation about the last ten years as economic growth put other concerns on the backburner. It happens across societies it seems as we get preoccupied by wealth and growth (understandably enough). The moment with browne today was very good fun for media, handlers, and watchers. I wonder what the man on the street made of it.
Might I direct you to Omani (From Bath to Cork with Baby Grace) who has a very interesting and very plausable explanation.
Paige