Irish Election are pleased to announce our collection of Irish 
Who will be the next, next leader of Fianna Fáil
Read more about: Bertie Ahern Resigns, Fianna Fail, Government
There’s little doubt that Brian Cowen will be the next leader of Fianna Fáil - be it after contest or coronation. The real power struggle seems to be for the Deputy Leadership / Tanaiste Portfolio, which will put the recipient in a prominent position for the next leadership race, whenever that might be.
Those who seem to be showing interested in this spot are Brian Lenihan, Dermot Ahern, Micheál Martin, Mary Hanafin, Mary Coughlan, Éamon Ó Cuiv and Noel Dempsey.
Brian Lenihan has already put his leadership aspirations on ice and backed Cowen but having just come to Justice last year he’s unlikely to get the Finance portfolio - seen as vital for any future leader. That said as holder of an already prominent position at cabinet he could still become Deputy Leader of Fianna Fáil and Tanaiste; perhaps even moving into Finance after the next election should the party return to office.
Micheál Martin also ruled himself out this morning and added his weight to Cowen’s camp - Martin is one of the more plausible contenders for an immediate move to Finance and whoever takes that job will be in a strong future position for the next leadership race. Of course just like it was rumoured that Martin was sent to Health by Bertie to clip his wings, a move to Finance in the current climate might not be as fortunate as it was 4 years ago.
Noel Dempsey has stated in no uncertain terms that he wants the leadership of Fianna Fáil at some point in the future and has refused to rule himself out of the race at this time. Whether he actually believes he could win it, or whether this is just a play to ensure his prominence in Cabinet for the next few years remains to be seen. Considering the competition for the job he isn’t a strong contender for Tanaiste.
Dermot Ahern would be another plausible candidate for the Finance portfolio. He’s arguably overdue a promotion from Foreign Affairs, where he’s been for four years and has worked hard on Northern Ireland. His stature in the party could very easily gift him the Deputy Leadership too, making him a very important figure in the post-Cowen era of Fianna Fáil, whenever that may be. However Cowen may need to appease a few pretenders and so split the prizes rather than give them all to one person.
Mary Hanafin has been surrounded by a lot of commentary lately which highlighted her refusal to back Bertie before he went. This is unlikely to have been met favourably within the party, especially not by the likes of Cowen who had gone out of their way to support their ailing leader. The fact that she has little support from teachers as Minister for Education only increases the difficulties she faces. Rumours of her plans to challenge Cowen have proven to be completely wide of the mark, however, but what she is sure to want to do is secure her place at Cabinet. She ’s very unlikely to lose her place in May 2008 - but with the traditional mid-term reshuffle coming up in a year she’ll want to ensure she’s not in any way dispensable come May 2009.
Mary Coughlan, on the other hand, was strong in her support for Ahern and is likely to do well from it. Equally contrasting from Mary Hanafin, Coughlan seems to be doing well in her Agriculture portfolio and has the support of farmers and fishers for the most part. She has ruled herself out of the leadership contest, though nothing else, but is not an obvious fit for either Tanaiste or Finance. That said as a relatively young Minister she will be thinking long term.
Éamon Ó Cuiv is extremely well respected in Fianna Fáil but his profile is low compared to other contenders for the Deputy Leadership and Finance portfolio. Like Dempsey, Ó Cuiv has made clear that he aspires to lead the party in the future but his first priority must be to get out of Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs and into something with more bite. What he can hope most for is to replace whoever takes Finance, giving him time to become more prominent and make a real push whenever Cowen leaves.
There is a transcript of Ivan Yates on Newstalk putting Cowen at 1/50 on. The odds for Tanaiste are more interesting. Read it here http://www.transcripts.ie/transcript/100267/ROLL-UP-ROLL-UP-FOR-THE-SUCCESSION-STAKES–WHO-WILL-BE-TAOISEACH–WHO-WILL-BE-TANAISTE
Might wanna add the edit that coughlan has come out to back cowen for the job, the field is narrowing by the day at this stage. If there is a contest, id say it will be ahern and cowen.
Aye - Hanafin has come out in support of him too.
I think everyone, bar perhaps Ahern, has accepted the inevitability of Cowen and is just jostling for position within that set up. Some, like Hanafin, may have originally thought that playing hardball and threatening a leadership election was the best way to force a deal on cabinet security and perhaps a deputy gig but the reality has hit them and they now see such an act as counter-productive.
I think Dempsey will come to the same conclusion very soon.
Only Dempsey left now - Dermot Ahern has said he supports Cowen and will not contest the leadership.
O’Cuiv??? That guy is already streatching his grandfather’s looks far beyond his talent. I’ll be shocked if he is in the cabinet in a month never mind Deputy Leader. He has wasted millions on keeping his Irish speaking pals in pointless jobs so in a time of economic downturn his whole department is for the chop.
I’d say he’s safe enough in cabinet - although he may be a bit ambitious to seek a promotion.
I notice that he was in New York for Ahern’s resignation, and made some extreme comments about the future of the Irish language which ensured he got a (small) mention in the news agenda… a clear attempt to say “I’m still here!” and ensure he’s not totally out of the loop.
As for his department being for the chop - I doubt that very much. For a start it covers more than just the Gaeltacht and secondly no Taoiseach would be brave enough to ditch a dept. like that even if it is perceived by some/many to be throwing money down the drain.