Irish Election are pleased to announce our collection of Irish 
TNS/MRBI Poll Results for April 2007
Read more about: Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Green Party, Labour Party, Parties, Polls, Progressive Democrats, Sinn Féin, Socialist Party
FF 34 (-3)
FG 31 (+5)
Lab 10 (-1)
Greens 6 (-2)
PD 3 (+2)
SF 10 (+1)
Ind 6 (-2)
The poll was conducted over last Monday and Tuesday from a representative sample of 1,000 voters at 100 sampling points across the country and in particular after the parties had all published the key economic aspects of their manifestos. Tomorrow’s Irish Times will have greater details on the adjustments made to the polling data so keep an eye open as this poll has been moved towards FG due to these adjustments.
Personally I think that TNS-MRBI’s adjustment towards FG is excessive and this will be one of the stories of the election when the votes are counted. At least though they no longer have the PDs on 1%!
I think that is the extra 2% for the PDs adjustment is what is excessive!
FT, do you accept at least that FF have lost support, that FG have gained and that FG must be on 28% minimum at this point?
Mary O’Rourke signed the petition. isn’t she fianna Fail?
Dan, bear in mind that according to posters on politics.ie, the unadjusted figures are:
FF: 32%
FG: 23%
So TNS-MRBI have conjured up a 3% lead for FF out of an 11% one. Sounds excessive to me. Their findings are increasingly out of line with the other companies e.g. Red C, IMS, which have FG on 23-4%. They were the only company to put the PDs on 1% in the previous poll - and they claimed that PD support in Dublin was only 1% in that poll when IMS said it was 8% and the most recent Red C poll 6%. They are assuming that a disproportionate quantity of the undecideds are closet FG voters. This may have been correct in the past - but in previous elections the Opposition were far less fragmented. The yrs since 2002 has since the rapid rise of SF and the Greens. I think this fact may make the traditional assumption of understated FG support obsolete in 2007 from the point of view of General Elections. For me though, the crucial factor is that ICM - a telephone polling-company with a good record of accuracy in the UK - had the most accurate results for the 2002 Irish GE with all the parties within 1% of their findings. They were the only company not to predict wipeout for the PDs and their findings for FG were extremely accurate. As Red C uses a similar methodology (its M.D. used to be in ICM), I am going to give more credence to their polls rather than TNS-MRBI - which is increasingly on its own in predicting high ratings for FG when hardly anyone else does.
Mary O’Rourke signed the petition. isn’t she fianna Fail?
I think you posted in the wrong thread. But ya niice spot. She supported weekend voting in the seanad last week.
I think I’ll wait until tomorrow and see the real unadjusted figures as those figures also need to be partially adjusted to remove the won’t vote category but I would be surprised if FG is not in the high twenties prior to the adjustments being carried out.
Until we have tomorrow’s paper and can see the split, its pre-emptive to comment on random figures posted to Internet forums by people who may have alternative agendas.
I have a problem with TNS-MRBI polls. If they were independently commissioned and published then that might be reliable. However they are always commissioned by a newspaper looking for a headline. When the TNS-MRBI analysts sit down to decide what the results will be surely this desire for a headline will be a conscious or unconscious factor in their decision making process. No headline making data means less business in the future.
Anyway no national poll is going to reflect reality. In Ireland all politics is local. Has anyone combined all the local Red-C local polls? That would give a far more accurate result.
Given the impact that this poll has had across the airwaves will TNS-MRBI be publishing the base numbers and the logic they applied to the data to come up with this figure? Who were the individuals within TNS-MRBI who decided the adjustments and have they any political affiliations now or in their past? They may have already done this but I can’t find it on the Irish times website and I haven’t been able to pop out of the office and buy a copy of the paper.
If this poll is accurate and the logic sound then it signifies a watershed in the election and presents, for the first time, a real alternative to Fianna Failure & Labour. But if it is inaccurate then it undermines the credibility of Ireland’s paper of record and signifies an ethically disturbing interference into the political system by an organisation we trust to be independently minded.
I heard on the news that the Irish Times has another poll saying that the majority of people want Fine Gael & Labour over Fianna Fail and the PDs.
Did they actually ask real people this time or is this another TNS-MRBI editorial opinion piece callint itself a poll. If it’s RedC then I’d say its an interesting result. If its by TNS-MRBI then it’s not worth the paper it’s written on.