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The king is dead long live the ?????? - Bertie Ahern Resignation Open Thread
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So Bertie Ahern has resigned after almost 10 years in charge. Which brought the Celtic Tiger and the Good Friday Agreement, he has been minister for Labour, Industry and Finance. He will go down in History as one of our most important leaders. But now he is history so who is the future? Comments please.
Edit: This is the Ahern Open Thread, feel free to raise all aspects as they occur throughout the day.
We now have some movement on the leadership race, Brian Lenihan has ruled out running this time for the leadership - perhaps focussing on positioning himself to be the next ‘leader-in-waiting’ as widely speculated. Mary Hanafin however has not commented on any leadership bid by her. Thoughts??
I don’t think there’s any question that Cowen will take over.
Considering the situation FF are in now, I’d wager that there won’t even be a challenge to that - to ensure a “united front” in the face of this bit of turmoil.
Now the process of rehabilitating Ahern’s reputation will begin in earnest. As Iwrite Eamonn Ryan is saying on RTE 1 television that he does not believe that Bertie ever took a corrupt payment. This can only conclude with roads all over north Dublin being closed for the dozens of people who will turn out for his state funeral in twenty or thirty years time, a la Haughey.
Eoghan Harris is now on RTE comparing the hounding of Ahern to the treatment of Charles Stewart Parnell. God help us.
I agree Adam, Cowen is the outright front runner. The only way that wont happen is if he doesnt want it. There is huge pressure on him to outline his own intentions and whether we get a second shock in a month but it does seem to point that way alright.
Interesting to listen to Harris on RTE 1 as well, anyone else listen - let the spinning begin?
I can envisage a big boost for FF post-Bertie, as guilt and regret set in with the voters. Willie O’Dea said himself that the Taoiseach did was best not only for the country, but for the party as well - a political genius to the end.
Did Harris hang up? Why did John Gormley feel the need to be there? Where was Harney? Is Gormley claiming a hand in an Ides of March on the 2nd of April?? Did it work?
CJ agree. Great move to frame it like that.
Also notice Eamon Gilmore far more loud on thsi then Enda. Has he made a statement yet?
Labour statement
http://labour.ie/press/listing/12071315203150226.html
How long it lasts though is down to who replaces Ahern CJ. Your right that this was strategic but there is a side of me that thinks he was nudged, if not pushed. IF the news continues to be bad - and it should be - that may well turn into further discomfort with FF
Harris did hang up Id say Green - wouldnt be the first time!! Gotta get a screen grab or pic of Gormley’s face behind bert. Video en-route too i think.
Will other parties face a backlash - in light of Gilmore’s statement etc - over this?
@Andrew Lawlor very good point and unlike Haughey Ahern will not be dragged thru the tribunals until old age only until the Summer.
Remember Gilmore is not preaching to a large selection of the media only his own. Hence why he is more vocal then Enda.
question is should cowen call an election and profit from the bertie bounce
I doubt he will, simon - considering it’s less than a year since the last one it would only give him a slightly longer term in office so the benefits don’t really outweight the risks.
Definitely Cowen, don’t think there will be an election. Martin in finance?
His ten years in charge brought the Celtic Tiger? Are you crazy. I came back to Ireland in 1995 after years away because I got lots of messages from home about the Celtic Tiger. I returned home and found a job and a thriving economy and everyone talking about the amazing success story that Ireland was. That was in 1995 - John Bruton was Taoiseach and Bertie Ahern hadn’t even stepped into power yet. So, don’t try to pretend it was up to him - the facts don’t support it.
Given my job I’m interested that FF attacking the media - blaming it for Ahern’s resignation, which seems to be based on the notion that the media hounded him out by giving the Tribunals coverage.
It’s odd to see it working too - people forgetting the questions that remain and acting as if Ahern had no suspicion around him… what I wonder is if this will last longer than the next week.
brought celtic tiger might be wrong word everyone back to sean lemass had a part to play in celtic tiger. precided over main period of it may be a better word. preceided over it decline is probably another aspect of his legacy to be discussed
Reuters have list of responces
http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUKL0240709720080402?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0
Adam - did you see the analysis on rte. Certainly FF were in a horrible position. You had one labour rep, martin mansergh for fianna fail and then two strict neutrals - Mr Bird and Noel Whelhan. I fel sorry for mansergh as Noel Whelhan launched attack after attack on the fianna fail party. Charlie Bird must have been stunned into silence. At lease Bryan Dobson tried to restore some balance to the proceedings by not trying to dig deep into any part of the story. It was woeful stuff. On another note interesting to see that the corrupt leader who dimished the office he held by his venal actions has been forced out of office. Yes Morgan Tsangirai is going to be the next president of Zimbabwe
I’ve been watching RTÉ but missed most of Mansergh’s bit - I doubt they’ll archive the footage online sadly
I think Cowen is of course the obvious and emotional choice. But I’m not so sure he’s the stable one. One reason: he’s not from Dublin. Dublin is where the FF downward creep in vote is pronounced. Does Cowen have what it takes to get that little extra appeal to Dublin and suburbs that Bertie clearly had? Jack Lynch wasn’t long in before the Dublin crew were scheming against him — and that was after carrying FF to its biggest victory ever in 1977.
Gormley: Ahern’s vision put Greens in government
http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/mhojojqlgbsn/
So John Gormley was not their by accident. He pays a fulsome tribute to Bertie and you have to wonder is he trying to show that the greens are true FF allies. Eamonn Gilmore was on rte earlier differtiating himself from FG’s approach of targeting ministers for supporting the Bert for so long. He wanted to focus on real issues. Is it real politik - he wont play a game thats of Fine Gael’s making or is there the possibility that the greens and pds will be told F off and we’ll have a FF/labour coalition. That would be one hell of a broom sweep for the govt., kick FG in the unmentionables and be a beautiful gift to the FF base. Any chance?
No i would say. FF would not want to drop so mny cabinet seats that Labour would ask for. More likely the PD’s will be dropped.
It matters not who takes over as leader of FF, so long as he, or she, pledges, unequivocally, the there is to be an end to Political Donations - of any hue.
The whole sorry mess that is Irish politics had its roots in the “Bung”.
Haughey; Lawlor; Burke; Ellis - & god knows how many others - have gone criminal as a consequence of the greed of Property Speculators, and those who would try to corrupt in order to obtain planning permissions and other favours.
There will never be an end to corruption until the cancer of the “Bung” is excised.
Apart from the morality of the entire, it would save the overburdened taxpayers of Ireland a fortune by ending the waste on the bloated legal fees that keep the wheels of the endless Tribunals turning.
The politician who can stand up & say that Political Bungs are to end, should win the next election.
We now have some movement on the leadership front. Brian Lenhian has ruled himself out - so no guessing who wants the top job after 2012 then.
Hanafin refuses to speculate, Ill give her a hint: Dont bother.
@Adam and Andrew I think that blaming the media is a little bit rich. There were three versions presented at different times to explain the money. It was within his gift to get the full explanation out at the start in private and be done with it. Media that dont pull the threads are of little use (unless your Mugabe).
That’s what I find hilarious - those most loyal to Ahern, such as Eoghan Harris, aren’t just attacking those in the media who actively oppose Ahern but attacking those in the media that relayed the facts of the matter objectively.
It’s not the media’s fault that there are inconsistencies and it’s their job to report on them - saying that the media is to blame for Ahern’s troubles is like saying a history book is to blame for Hitler’s hatred of the Jews.
i find that to be the disconnect myself and of course that is not to say that some do not have an agenda, the Mail were clear that they wanted a big scalp to claim credit and boost sales but there is a mish-mash of principles. The hounding of a decent man worked with Vincent Browne at the election but it dragged and required more and more clarification - that is what was reported. Give a man rope…..
by the way, are we clear on whether he will be standing down as a TD? Will we have a DC by-election soon?
No indication on what he’s going to do in DC - assuming he is as loyal to the party as he suggests I’d wager he wouldn’t quit the seat too quickly as it would almost certainly end in a FF loss.
What he will most likely do is spend the time necessary to pass the torch of St. Lukes onto someone else and ensure that come the next election it will be a safe two seats for FF as it was before.
but a by-election in DC may well lead to an FF seat. Cllr MAry Fitzpatrick would have to get the FF nod (not with St Luke’s blessing I suppose but there you go) and would look to take enough votes from Bertie to win - his machine would look churlish to swizzle her twice. Then contest as FF incumbent in the Cabra part of the constituency and let Cyrpian to his own devices.
Perhaps - with a lot of ground-work from Ahern.
I think it would be a no-brainer if someone of the Ahern clan was there to move in - like what happened upon the death of Brian Lenihan Sr. with his namesake son.
Even if there was an obvious heir in the constituency - with neither Brady nor Fitzpatrick can be described as. I do think that’s what Royston was supposed to be back in 2004 but that didn’t work.
Now it has to be asked - how much of the vote in DC is his, and how much is Fianna Fáil’s… also, can Ahern talk those who vote for him alone into trusting someone else or get his magic to rub off on a successor in a short space of time?
They might feel that rather than trying to rush a successor through the ranks - and ramming that down DC’s throat - it might be better to spend the next 2 years or so bumping up the profile of someone slowly and ingraining them in the constituency’s subconscious by having them at Bertie’s arm at every event.
I think the real motivating factor will be whether Bertie has somewhere to go next or not - I’m sure he’s not short of job offers but what he’ll be looking for is the right one, not the first one.
I was interested to read the blog from Fiona Price.
Her memory is absolutely correct. The boom started with John Bruton. And John Hume brought about peace in Northern Ireland, with help from Albert Reynolds.
Ahern took the photo-opportunities - after all the hard work behind the scenes was completed by the professionals.
Bertie Ahern, when challenged about his convoluted finances, (he was Minister Of Finance at the time) stated that some of the “bungs” he got was to pay Stamp Duty on his Rented House!
It tells one all one has to know about the competence of this absurd person. And it was during his tenure as Minister, that the whole issue of Stamp Duty was defined.
The man is incapable of functioning without his prepared notes; speeches; €300 weekly cosmetic makeover; helicopter; Gulf Stream jet & all the props that disguise his incompetence.
And, Fiona Price also raised the issue of Ahern’s proposed visit to the United States of America (at the taxpayers’ expense, again) to read a prepared paper to Congress.
As a disgraced former PM, he should send an apology to all the Irish people in the USA that he has let down by his crass behaviour and, if indeed any address is really necessary, or of value to the economy of Ireland , allow a TD of stature and probity to carry out the address.
As for evading his responsibilities as a public servant, and not having Mahon on his back into old age, like his mentor, the late unlamented Don Charleone of Abbeville, that is up to HIM, not Mahon.
Just tell them the truth; retire and watch football over a pint of imported English beer. Maybe take a part time job with the beards & sandals in the Movement.
But, Bertie, whatever you decide to do, don’t even begin to think of going to the EU.
They have enough problems of their own, with MEP’s fiddling their expenses; trade unions supporters disrupting the economy & driving up inflation; and the likes of Marylou (SF) - as an apologist for the murderous activities of her associates in the IRA.