Local Poll for Waterford Sees Fianna Fail Vote Drop but Keep Seats

Poll released today in the Waterford News and Star by Red C for the constituency. There is considerable good news for Fine Gael, although a possible headache for Enda Kenny, John Deasy tops the poll on 20% of the first preference and Fine Gael’s overall first preference share is 30%. This despite a sitting Minister in the constituency is a very solid showing. 30% is not enough to secure them two seats however it is possibly good news for Labour that there will be some second preferences available if Fine Gael voters stick to party orders.

Minster Martin Cullen is second with  16% down 2% from last election and the other two Fianna Fail candidates have leaked 3% each. Despite that drop it is still probable that Ollie Wilkinson will take fourth seat, while Labour’s incumbent Brian O’Shea will come in third. So despite an obvious boost to Fine Gael’s overall vote (from 21% to 30%) they still have work to do unseating Fianna Fail TDs.

It is as you were in Waterford apparently, unless David Cullinane of Sinn Fein continues to build support (he has increased his support by 50% alreadyto around 9% and will come in fifth in the race it seems). With Wilkinson still short of a quota it appears that the final seat may be slightly more open although it will require Fianna Fail to leak more support in the coming weeks.

Local councillor Seamus Ryan’s take on it is interesting; “Fine Gael’s strategy of running 3 candidates may come back to haunt them as it would seem that both Cllr’s Coffey and Darcy are not polling sufficiently high enough to capture that second Fine Gael seat. Sinn Fein must be disappointed with the showing of its candidate Cllr Cullinane who is polling at 9% which falls far short of what Sinn Fein were predicting here locally”.

Both of those are good points, surely if FG have 30% support there needs to be more discipline and hard work in order to bring home a second candidate, if Labour’s Brian O Shea comes in third with more than a quota there is room for an upset (slim though it seems).

Lastly to David Cullinane, one of Sinn Fein’s young guns, a candidate for Europe and certainly someone the party had hoped to bring into the Dail alongside Mary-Lou. Seamus suggests local talk has been much bigger, a phenomenon not confined to Waterford. It is going to be interesting too see how the candidates like Cullinane and MacDonald do come election time as they are the hopefuls for the Sinn Fein election strategy. 9% though is a long way off the required first preferences to reach a quota.