Cork North Central Poll Suggests 2 Seats for FF, 2 Seats for Alternative

Great stuff, another local poll. Cork North Central is under the microscope for the Echo. It is a four-seater this year (down from five). Was a 3-1-1 but one incumbent FF is retiring so the incumbency is 2-1-1 for the four seater. The poll predicts that Fianna Fail are likely to have a pretty major drop in support but still manage to retain their two seats.

Fianna Fail duo Billy Kelliher and Noel O’Flynn manage to shed 10% of the first preference vote (Kelliher down to 17% and O’Flynn to 14%). Labour’s Kathleen Lynch is likely to top the poll with 17% (up from 12%) and it is suggested she will get the first seat. Fine Gael’s Bernard Allen also has a strong showing on 19% (up from 12%).

The mechanics of the four seater hint at a return for all four incumbents but that is definitely shaky when one considers the role that the following may have on transfer patterns;

It is recorded that 31% of those polled expressed a level of dissatisfaction with Deputy Noel O’Flynn FF and 27% expressed a level of dissatisfaction with Deputy Billy Kelleher FF.
The highest satisfaction ratings were recorded by Kathleeen Lynch at 57% and Bernard Allen at 56%.

When asked if they wanted to see a change in government, 59% of voters agreed. Given a range of options, the most popular option was FG / Labour at 23%.

There is a pretty strong case to be made that transfers could undo Noel O’Flynn on 14% if the erosion in support and confidence in Fianna Fail continues in the fashion it appears to have developed. Who from those outside the top four could gain?

Fine Gael and Sinn Fein have councillors running on 9% each (Gerry Kelly and Jonathon O’Brien) and if the transfers fall for one or the other it is possible, though unlikely. This is the second piece of decent news for the opposition from the Munster region, it is not as good as the new from South Kerry since they don’t gain a seat as such. However the possible changes in sentiment recorded by the poll are the first distinctive signs of dissatisfaction we have seen in an otherwise inconclusive set of polls so far.