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Liam Twomey Fighting for Seat
Read more about: Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Irish Election, Labour Party, Polls, Progressive Democrats, Wexford
The Wexford Echo (more here)has commissioned a Red C poll for the Wexford constituency. The headline figure from the poll suggests that Fine Gael’s Liam Twomey will struggle to hold on to his seat. Out ahead by a country mile is Fianna Fail’s John Browne on 30%.
Brendan Howlin is also doing well on 16% with Fine Gael’s Paul Kehoe on 14%. Fianna Fail’s Sean Connick is on 8% with possible and although the headline suggests that Twomey could lose his seat, it is however more accurate to suggest that at 9% he is fighting with Connick and Fine Gaels other candidate Cllr Michael D’Arcy for the final spot on the ticket.
The other noteworthy result was Colm O Gorman remaining on 2% in the constituency, little change on the last poll..
The poll predicts the status quo 2-2-1 for the parties however it could see a shuffle of FG personnel in the Dail.
There was a terrible piece of bias on George Hook’s programme yesterday. first of all the eidtor of the Wexford Echo was on saying what a great candidate O’Gorman is, followed by O’Gormon telling us what a great guy he is. Absolutely no discussion about the possibility of Sinn Féin taking the last seat. and the piece lasted about 20 minutes.
The idea of SF taking the last seat seems to be dismissed because of the old albatross for Sinn Fein - no transfers. But, with the country ten years into the preace process, and Sinn Fein on the cusp of power up north, we might see a bit of a change in voting transfers. How many first-time voters will we have this election, voters who would have been 8yrs of age when the second cease-fire was called. I don’t know if that will happen, but surely that’s more of a discussion point regarding this election than O’Gormon getting free airtime to tell us what a great guy he is. Well, at least 2% of a first preference great guy, anyway.
It just seems to be another example of the sheer hatred in Irish media for Sinn Féin. Bowman is the same on questions and answers.
and I would not be surprised if Towmney loses his seat. He stood as an independent and then goes off and joins FG. Very cheap trick. It has definitely lost him votes, that move.
Sorry, one other point. The idea of the last seat possibly going to FG seems to be based on the assumption that Twomey’s votes were, in the first place, FG votes. They weren’t. They were independent votes. The people who gave Twomey their first preference - 5,815 of them - were obviously not FG voters, otherwise why give Twomey their 1st? The guy grabbed onto the coat-tails of Kenny afterwards, and I’d be VERY SURPRISED if Twomey has convinced the majority of those 5,815 to now vote FG with their first preference. In the absence of an independent candidate, SF might just benefit as a protest vote. As always, you heard it first on http://www.irishelection.com