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Radio na Gaeltachta Poll Suggests Green TD for Galway West
Read more about: Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Galway West, Green Party, Irish Election, Labour Party, Polls, Progressive Democrats, Sinn Féin
Another one slipping below today’s radar is the Radio na Gaeltachta Poll on Galway West. See below the fold for results and bottom of post for link to .xls of results.
Eamon O Cuiv (FF): 27%
Frank Fahy (FF): 13%
Michael D Higgins (Lab): 11%
Niall O Brolchain (Green): 11%
Noel Grealish (PD): 8%
Michael Crowe (FF): 7%
Padraigh McCormack (FG): 7%
Anne Marie Carroll (SF): 5%
Healy-Eames, Fidelma (FG): 5%
Catherine Connolly (IND): 3%
O Cuaig (Ind): 1
From here to may it seems the O Brochlain factor that will determine the shocks in Galway West. Firstly he is likely to become a national name thanks to the rarity of Greens outside Dublin. Secondly and more importantly is by how much he gets over a quota and how soon. If he gets there third with Micheal D fourth it could be that he has enough transfers to affect the outcome of fifth spot. Since his much stated aim is to take out Frank Fahy we may wonder if his second aim is to take out the rest of the FF candidates or the PDs. I know he wont have control of the votes on the day but his transfers could be crucial and how they play out could materially affect the fortunes of Grealish or the other FF candidates (I doubt he has enough surplus to do both).
The other major consideration is that transfers can often be as geographic as they are about party. Rural voters are likely to transfer locally as much as along party lines. O Brolchain is primarily urban in his vote and this means he has to get a lot of the urban voters to give him 2 and 3 or else his position could deteriorate following later counts. The other candidates/parties seem more balanced and it is a tough one to call for fifth spot (considering I have put eggs in the basket viz. the other four).
The analysis accompanying the poll (by Donncha Ó hÉallaithe, GMIT, Galway) had this to predict:
“It appears the seats will be filled as follows: Éamonn Ó Cuív (FF) to be elected on first count with a substantial surplus, the transfer of which should elect Frank Fahey (FF) to take the 2nd seat. Michael D. Higgins and Niall Ó Brolcháin are poised to take the 3rd and 4th seats, with the possibility that Ó Brolcháin will reach the quota before the Labour veteran.
The struggle for the last seat will be between Michael Crowe (FF), Noel Grealish (PD) and Pádraig Mac Cormack (FG). Since there is likely to be a reasonably good transfer between the two government candidates, it possible that the sitting FG Deputy, Pádraig Mac Cormack could be the loser.”
In the last election at least, FF voters gave more transfers to each of FG, Labour, and Independents, than to the PDs. http://www.electionsireland.org/transfers.cfm?election=2002&cons=129
Donncha ó hÉallaithe’s assumption about inter-goverment party transfer is just that, an assumption - at least with regard to Galway West. On transfers alone, FG have a better chance of picking them up from FF than the PDs do.
but it’s true, the Greens are looking more and more like the success story of this election.
Oh. I’ve just been on to Paddy Power, and they said that the odds for Galway West will be up on their site soon.
It is also worth noting that Crowe is not a long time FFer. He only joined very recently having being elected as an indepedent, if Grealish is depending on Crowe to save him then he should be worried. Also, this poll again completely overstates the likely support for the main name incumbent in O’ Cuiv. He will top the poll but not with half a quota of a surplus.