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Have Ye a Date For the Dance, Bertie Ahern?
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Wagger is prepared to call a date for the Election - it’s May 17th.
Here’s the sums:
FF Árd Fheis is on 23rd/24th/25th March.
Huge billboard campaign starts the next day, Monday 26th March (which is the first day of a new cycle), and lasts two cycles (total of four weeks), bringing us to 22nd April. That’s reported in The Irish Times today.
Writ is moved on 23rd/24th April, without the Dáil sitting that week. There may or may not have been a Dáil sitting the previous week, but if so it’ll have been two half-days (Wednesday 18th, 2pm-8pm and Thursday 19th, 10:30am-3pm) after a long Easter Break.
The writ being moved on 23rd/24th April gives a zone of 14th-22nd May for the vote. Bertie will either go for a Thursday or a Friday based on previous record. With things on the jobs front not looking great, he won’t want the students voting, which is why Wagger is leaning towards a Thursday rather than a Friday.
The only Thursday between 14th & 22nd May is the 17th. So, Wagger is putting all of Wagger’s hard earned cash on the 17th (or the 18th!).
You read it first on IrishElection.com.
Will they really want the Dáil back after Easter? I don’t think so. I’d say you’re off by a week - they’ll either only run one cycle of ads, or they’ll take the hit of a few days overlap into their official election spend. May 10th/11th that way.