Irish Election are pleased to announce our collection of Irish 
Fine Gael in Meath
Read more about: Coalition, Fine Gael, Labour Party, Meath, Meath East, Meath West
First, a little history. Meath has just been converted from one 5 seat constituency into two 3 seat constituencies. The distribution used to be (eons ago) 2, 2, 1 (i.e 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Labour). It then changed to 3, 2, (3 FF, 2 FG) and how Labour would love their seat back.
The most recent political temperature was taken of course during the by-election to replace Brutal’s seat when he took the big job in the US. Shane McEntee FG won this and many thought that this was an expected result i.e. an FG seat remained with FG. What this ignored was that a by-election is effectively a referendum and in Meath, one that FF should have won given that they hold the majority of votes in the county.
So now we have Meath East and West. Shane will run in Meath East and Damien English the youngest member of the Dail in Meath West. The big question is who will run with them?
First to Meath West. Poor Mairead McGuiness. She is under HUGE pressure to run with Damien and why not? She is a marvellous candidate. In fact rumour has it she has also been approached to run in Louth, Dublin North, and even Kildare. But Mairead would be a fool to run without establishing two things:
1. Is she guaranteed a win in that constituency?
2. Will she get a cabinet position if a coalition wins the election.
Surely she has to be guaranteed the latter? Talent like her’s simply could not be ignored and one would hope that old loyalties which might see lesser but loyal members rewarded will not hold sway.
A win in the constituency? GUBU’s excellent sources in the Meath organisation are extremely optimistic. They way they see it? FF 1 (Noel Dempsey) and FG 2. Johnny Brady FF, goodbye, they say. GUBU would be prepared to bet, not quite the farm, but certainly a few quid on Mairead entering the fray in Meath West. After all, Europe may be where it’s at politically (they do after all decide more than the Dail does) but that trek to Strasbourg is no fun.
Over in Meath East, things are a little more interesting. The dashing Dominic Hannigan is Labour’s great hope for retaking that traditional seat. I met him once. He is utterly charming and bright and deserving of a seat. It is thought that part of FG/Labour’s electoral pact might include a gentleman’s agreement which would see FG politely hold back from running a second top notch canditate with McEntee in order to give Dominic the best chance of getting that seat.
Unless, unless, FG could hardly refuse young Matthew Bruton, John’s son, and potential political heir, the opportunity to run should he express an interest. While the Da cosies up to Bush and his mates in DC, Matthew’s been doing some cosying of his own and running Young FG in Meath East with great enthusiasm. Geographically a McEntee/Bruton ticket would work, although one would fear that they might cannibalise the FG rural vote instead of maximising the potential in suburban towns such as Bettystown, Ashbourne, Dunshaughlin and of course, the Bruton home town Dunboyne. Still, perhaps Bruton’s youth will be such that he will take on the urban constituency and not leave himself dependant on the Da’s farming buddies for votes. And hey, as the Leinster European Election campaign showed, there’s nothing like running a bunch of great candidates, ripping each other apart for every vote to maximise the party’s total vote. Could work.
So, a long range forecast:
Meath West: 2 FG, 1 FF (English, McGuinness, Dempsey)
Meath East: Perhaps, 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour (Wallace, McEntee, Hannigan) or the FG Wet dream result (1 FF, 2 FG (McEntee/Bruton).
by Sarah Carey
i want but myself in the daill i kown peole wnat am working for fine gael and i will give
berite the peace of my maind he is not but the poeple frist he is only thiinking about and the team he dose not care for our peopel i and will not stand and see berie is hurt them any more we will not acpect it and i will not going let this happen tell that berite he got other thing coming palese e amaill me gary mc cabe
I think the situation requires an independent TD. Or an activist type TD in the main parties. Doesn’t have to be any good. Just somebody who negotiates a good deal concerning crime, putting passenger traffic on the rail line to Drogheda, planning, infrastructure, and drugs. But in the event of a hung Dail, it is always useful to have one. A Jackie Healy Rae type mover. Even if results in another comic. Even if Sir Anthony’s wallpaper machine hates independent TDs (he can’t rely on them to run the country in a manner that he sees fit and proper). Even if Bertie would rather deal with the PDs, or the Labour Party (because they will not respond to popular demands like Independents).
I think FG will do better than most people expect (in the national media). Just like the national media got it wrong in the last election with respect to Meath. And just like the Natioanl MEdia got the by-election wrong with respect to Meath. (it seems the Meath electorate seems completely oblivious to national mood swings).
FG will do well partly because FG have been driving hard on the key issues. And this is impressing people. In retrospect even Bruton’s Celtic Snaill campaign is a good reflection of the traffic situation and the health system. But mainly because FF are completely silent. Almost taking everything for granted. McEntee is more popular and vocal than Mary Wallace. Apart from that, exactly what is Noel Dempsey doing ? apart from following instructions from Bertie Ahern ? Does Noel Dempsey have an opinion on the crazy lunatic planning that is going on in South Meath villages, the drugs epidemic, declining environmental standards, the mess that is the North Eastern Health Board or the transport issue ?? All these issues are right under his nose, and he is a government minister. He was director of elections in the last by-election, and he (or else something else) managed to motivate the Fianna Fail vote stayed at home. Dempsey managed to completely miss all of the issues(namely those listed above). He gave neither intelligent assistance, or effort, to an inexperienced, clueless candidate. And when questioned about it on the national media, all he could offer was excuses, and the comment that it was John Bruton’s old seat anyway.
Another issue is the fact that Labour don’t have a nutter in the constituency as a reminder for people on why they should keep Fianna Fail in power. In many consituencies where the PDs are strong, there is a Labour nutter there to remind people that Fine Gael will not get into government by itself, and this means that Labour get into power (so that they can, as Dessie O’Malley would say - go mad when in power). This ramps up the PD or FF vote at the expense of Fine Gael. This could be seen most visibly in Dublin in the last election. And unlike Fine Gael, Labour have not cleaned out the daftness yet. It has only been silenced. But it will emerge within a few months. Because Rabitte can’t keep the loony wing of Labour in the background all of the time, expecially when it loves the limelight.