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Deenihan May Lose Seat in North Kerry
Read more about: Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Kerry North, Labour Party, Sinn Féin
Kerry people are an odd bunch. Rarely are we accredited as a barometer of the nation at large and 2007 looks to continue that reputation for exceptionalism. The Kerryman carried a story earlier this month about a leaked internal poll from FF. The poll suggested a number of interesting outcomes for the next election.
The poll suggested that Fianna Fail may extend their first preferences in the constituency to 41% out from the mid 30s. Despite this however, it looks unlikely that a second seat will be returned for FF in the area. Fianna Fail is having trouble which is not unique to the party of the country, namely the disgruntled third candidate.
Earlier this year, sitting TD Tom McEllistrim and Tralee Town Councillor Norma Foley were selected at convention to stand for FF. Norma is the daughter of former TD Dennis Foley (now of the famed Ansbacher Accounts) an McEllistrim also comes from a strong FF dynasty in the town.
Relations have been tense with Party HQ however as they both operate out of the Tralee area and worries over the splitting of the FF vote continue to float around. With only 2% dividing Foley from McEllistrim (Tom on 17% and Norma on 15%) it seems that there is a seat available for one of the two. And yet the party is concerned about the hinterlands of North Kerry and the fact that no geographical candidate is present from there.
Of course this plays into the hands of our interloper Cllr John Brassil. Brassil missed out to Foley at convention and there are a number in the party that would like to see him added to the ticked by HQ. The Kerryman note that:”The Fianna Fáil party HQ in Dublin is widely understood to favour the Ballyheigue pharmacist as a potential running mate for McEllistrim and Foley.”
However the poll only gives him a notional 9% of the vote and there are serious questions about the value of adding him and splitting the party vote all over the county. There is a risk (although small) that the whole strategy could backfire and from 41% support barely return a single candidate.
It is not luncay however that provokes such a response from Fianna Fail however but the smell of blood. The same poll suggested that North Kerry TD for Fine Gael Jimmy Denihan may be in serious danger of losing his seat. Having made it through at the expense of Dick Spring last time, Deenihan would be under threat from either a strong Labour candidate or any sustained FF attack on his North Kerry base.
In the event it seems that both conditions are prevelant in the constituency at the moment, with former Mayor of Tralee Cllr Terry O Brien looking likely to stand for Labour and the possibility of Brassil nicking Deenihans local vote.
The Poll showed Denihan on around 20% of the vote, with O Brien on 17% and Sinn Feins Martin Ferris on 22%. Considering the strong transfer pool available to FF it seems likely the McEllistrim or Foley will return for FF, with Ferris highly unlikely to be booted out of the Dail. That leaves one seat between the two or three remaining candidates. With Brassil’s seconds likley to head toward FF and Martins toward Labour or FF, it seems that Deenihan will have his work cut out to deliver a much needed seat to the FG/Labour machine. It may be neutral overall with the possible return of O Brien, but if a second FF seat materialised then there would be real trouble.
So while around the polls, FFs vote is falling away into the mid-30s internal FF polls suggest that Kerry may again buck the trend and come out strong for the soldiers of destiny.
The key for FF will be a strong enforcement of canvassing rules, with one of the Tralee candidates forced to look farther afield for support, the real dogfight will be between Foley and McEllsitrim to keep the Tralee area in their patch.
Personally it is difficult to see McEllistrim being beaten at this stage by Foley however a good campaign and a name that is still respected in North Kerry politics is likely to see her fight till the very end.
Ferris is not unassailable but with a strong party machine and strong vote from around the county he is perhaps safer than most. If it gets as close as predicted however then he will once again be relying on transfers from other parties.
From the picture the Kerryman revealed recently much could rest on the effect of one Ballybunion pharmacist.
Most people seem to think the Sinn Fein seats are rock solid I wonder are they. They got a lot of the disilliusioned vote. Will they still get that i wonder
That is where you are mistaken my friend. The SF vote has been courted and built up over many years, and is almost exclusively based in deprived areas. SF reps are highely visible in these areas and it is certainley not whimsical. Look at Caoumghin O Caolain, he secured a high % in 97 and took it agian in 2003. I predict the same for the sitting SF TD’s. I presume you come from a middle class area Simon, and this is where you get this half baked notion of a ‘disillusioned vote’/ It aint disillussioned, its positive of all the solid pr-active work done in the community.
I in fact come from a rural area. While much of the vote is from the hard work on the ground much of the vote is also from Disillusionedment.
I have to say that most of Ferris’ vote is similarly built. Hard work and a high local profile plus the added whiff of cordite has a secure enough base for him to work on.
I wouldnt use the term disillusioned since the votes that SF are mobilising are almost new in the sense of having never been regular voters.
The SF mobilisation is motivating votes that were uninterested or disengaged less disillusioned that is semantis i guess but it also means that the loyalty will be built up among those who have been returned to the fold and consistent platform established
C