Irish Election are pleased to announce our collection of Irish 
An independent solution to an independent problem
Read more about: Coalition, Independents
We argued recently that the country’s version of proportional representation was inimical to political accountability because it resulted in a fragmented political opposition, manifested in an increasing number of independent TDs. Not surprisingly, this issue has been on the minds of the independents. But the tentative solution contains at least one inherent contradiction: in the post-election outcome where the solution is relevant, it is highly likely to unravel.
Thursday’s Irish Times (subs. req’d) has the relevant story. 8 independents and Joe Higgins have signed a letter of protest about a case of shoddy medical care in Mayo. This consensus around a single case now has some of the independents thinking bigger.
Dublin North Central TD Finian McGrath said the possibility of creating an election alliance, though not a new party, has been discussed between the Independents for some months. “I am very enthusiastic about it, and so are many of my colleagues. Others are sitting back, waiting and seeing. They are worried that their independence might be questioned,” he said.
“People keep talking that Sinn Féin or the Greens will be the power-brokers in the next Dáil, but they won’t have the numbers. The Independents will,” Mr McGrath said. “I would be confident that closer to the election we would be able to sign up to a list of demands on four, or five major issues, such as the health service and other things.”
“The manifesto could then be put to either Fianna Fáil, or Fine Gael in post-election negotiations, he said, though other Independents cautioned that an alliance agreement is further down the line,” Mr McGrath said.
Here’s one problem. Since by definition there is no party umbrella enforcing discipline in this agreement, the incentives for any side deals in post-election negotiations will be enormous, except in the unlikely scenario where the number of TDs in the pact is exactly enough to deliver a majority to government-forming block. Suppose for example that a FG-Lab-Green block needs 3 votes for a majority, and there are 10 independents in the pact. Do we really think that the block would bother agreeing to the demands of all 10, when they cut a side deal with 3 of them? And will the 3 really care about what the other 7 think if they cut their own deal? Their voters certainly won’t. The more fanciful notions of a new force in the Dail should remember that the localism of the Irish electoral system cuts both ways.
To my mind getting reelected in the first place demands that the independents do something like the manifesto mooted above. Getting in once is fine but aside from the likes of Gerry Crowley who had a high profile over Rossport 5 and so forth, indpendents may find the squeeze on come election time.
Of course after the election they will all be looking for the tony gregory deal of deals.
i would say some independents are safe Jakie healy and Lowry and gregory spring to mind.
I think the independents need to work harder (or maybe some of them actually want to work harder because of a genuine commitment to politics! whole different thread there) because of the lack of a party machine. They don’t have to look to see what their party colleagues are doing on an issue. This weeks story is not the first time that they have worked together on an issue either. This time our independents are more than single issue candidates - and I think they have more chance of reelection because of this (remember the MMDS deflector TV TD anyone?)
It has long been held that Bertie would prefer to have Independents to support a FF minority government than the PD’s and has kept certain people sweet at times in case of a PD walk out? In terms of doing deals, greed and electoral fortunes win. Political ideology will be important too - don’t think Mr. Higgins will be doing late night negotiations with Mr. Rabitte should the need arise!