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TNS/MRBI Poll Today
Read more about: Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Government, Green Party, Labour Party, Polls, Progressive Democrats, Sinn Féin, Socialist Party
John was right there is a poll in Today’s Irish Times. First the results (adjusted for party support;
Fianna Fail 37% (-3)
Fine Gael 26 (-1)
Labour 11 –
Sinn Fein 9% (+2)
Green Party 8% (+4)
PDs 1% (-2)
Independent/Other 8% –
The putative coalitions are on 38% and 37% respectively though a national poll really fails to tell us anything about seats, this one suggests the election may not be the dead duck we worried it was becoming.
There is plenty of good news there (unless your a PD), with Sinn Fein getting a boost following the Ard Fheis and the Greens gaining by more than the margin of error. Fine Gael and Labour are sure to feel ‘back in the game’, yet John’s core point in the earlier post is worth bearing in mind.
how do they adjust for party support?
TNS/MRBI give more weight to FG than to FF - because of the trends they’ve seen over many, many years of polls and elections. It’s theorised that FG committed voters are more likely to actually turn up on the day. Whatever the reason behind it, their weighting is generally taken as being as close to gospel as a poll can get by everyone else (including all the other polling companies).
but what does that do to labour greens pd’s and SF?
Keith judging by previous elections regarding FG might not be appropriate this time because of the larger proportion of young voters this year who will be far less inclined just to vote as their parents did - polls all evidence up to 24% support for SF among 18-24 yr olds for example. As a PD I believe this poll is wrong on PD support just as TNS-MRBI was in 2002 when predicting a PD wipeout with the party on 2%. Also the findings on PD support conflict sharply with the 2 other most recent polls - the Red C poll of last Sunday put the party on 3% including 5% in Dublin, whereas the IMS poll put the party on 5% and 8% in Dublin. Now when you consider the fact that both this polls were preceded by another TNS-MRBI poll putting the PDs only on 1% in the capital, it becomes very clear that someone is getting it wrong here. I would contend that the experience with the accuracy of the ICM (telephone) poll in 2002 would seem to indicate that the face-to-face polls are less accurate and that we should give more credence to findings deducted by telephone polling. The evidence is that face-to-face polling is less accurate and I personally feel that TNS-MRBI are being overzealous in readjusting towards FG.
It’s pretty bad which ever way you look at it. If face-to-face polls are indeed less accurate then it suggests to me (although I am prejudiced) that people are unwilling to publicly admit support for the PDs when it comes to looking someone straight in the eye. It’s these voter’s guilty secret which can only be acknowledged in the confessional space of the polling booth. The fact that 10 years in government has not increased the PDs political fortunes in the same way as it has consolidated Fianna Fail’s suggests that this is a failing party. The strength of the leader doesn’t matter at all when he doesn’t have a party to lead.
Part of the problem is that fellow travelers of the PDs, those sympathetic to their political view point, if not actual members of the party, have lost faith in their ability to bring in any type of reform. Despite his bluster, even McDowell has backed down when a reform has met strenuous objection within government. As for Mary Harney’s ‘accomplishments’ as Minister for Health, well, the PDs, according to one poll back in November 2006, are the most dishearted of all.
So basically the people in MRBI do the opinion survey. Look at the results and if they don’t like them they change them. Fianna Fail seem a big high so lets drop them. Fine Gael look a bit low so increase them. Sinn Fein should have bounce after the Ard Fheis so lets give them a couple extra points. No one likes the PDs so lets knock them down a few. And an Teach Glas on TG4 is getting good ratings so the Green support will increase before the show ends. But I’m still putting €10 on FF-Labour because even in polls “adjusted” to favour FG that looks the most likely outcome.
I hope the Irish Times didn’t pay too much for that. If a major newspaper would like to pay for an opinion poll with results guaranteed to get headlines give me a call. All results catered for.
Mick all the polls are adjusted to ensure that they are representative of those who vote. MRBI have a formula they use to adjust FF and FG support to be more reflective of how the country is, they have done this because their polls done right up to the point of an election have been off consistently by a %. Fact is all polling companies do this in every country. The Labour lose in 92 in the UK was a big factor behind it.
If you were to consider the situation of a sniper shooting over 1000 yards with a heavy cross wind, the sniper would be stupid not to adjust for the element. One element here appears to be overestimation of FF support and underestimation of FG. So long as they make the same type of adjustment in each and every poll then we can at least compare the polls. Though we can by no means to certain the adjustment itself is 100% correct. And Brian Boru/Future Taoiseach ICM did one poll in 2002 and nothing since, perhaps they are a better polling company and the phone polling meant nothing, you can’t possibly know for sure. You might believe it, but all you have to go on is faith, you don’t have any science to back you up.