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Soundbite Over Substance
Read more about: Economy, Irish Election, Labour Party
If Pat Rabbitte was chasing fifteen minutes of fame, it worked.
Not only has his tax cut grabbed all the political headlines, it has left the Government with nothing but limp-wristed and Steve Stautonesque retorts. Watching Bertie struggle to provide a critique on Monday, I was sure he was going to say that as everyone knows, February is a bad month to be playing against tax cuts. But Bertie’s lack of a suitable retort tells us one thing for sure. If Bertie didn’t have a response to Rabbitte’s tax speech, it means Bertie’s advisors didn’t have a response. (Bertie never has a response. That’s why he has advisors). Nobody, not even that famous Fianna Fáil machine, saw this coming.
Well, almost nobody. Labour senator Derek McDowell had obviously been informed of the party leader’s policy spectacular.
In his speech to the one-day conference, the senator started off by saying it needs to be recognised that, when it comes to the economy, there is something of a consensus in Irish politics. (The Socialist Party and Sinn Féin excepted). At the time it seemed a little strange. I was watching it at home and was taking some notes and I didn’t quite know where he was going with this. The senator said that the main difference between the major parties was not on the economy, or even economic issues, but rather on how public money should be spent. On what type of Ireland we want. The way we want to develop as a nation. The values we want at its core. Our sense of social justice carved out in legislative stone– these are the issues on which to fight the election.
The senator said thank you and moved away from the podium to a polite round of mid-afternoon applause. I went back to watching American Idol, thinking, well, Derek’s blown his chance to raise his profile again.
Then came Rabbitte’s speech. It started off, and carried on, so well. He asked, are we happy? We have all this wealth, but at what cost? It’s time, he said, to think about the kind of society we want. The values we hold. To set out our sense of social justice in legislative stone: Health; Education; Housing; Crime. These are the issues on which to ask the people of Ireland for the right to govern. To paraphrase Clinton, it’s the community, stupid.
Then came the tax cut, and at a stroke Rabbitte’s social justice speech became Rabbitte’s tax speech. It took me a couple of days, but Senator McDowell’s comments finally made sense. Rabbitte had set out a substantial policy platform, one that I’ve waited a long time to hear from this Labour leader, only to see it wiped out by the political handjob – a tax cut.
This tax promise is going to bite Rabbitte on the ass.
Short-term he’s caught the government off-guard. But he did so at the expense of fucking with the electorate. I was reminded of the Simpsons when I heard Rabbitte’s tax speech. As always with that programme, it sums up in 30 seconds what it takes us mere mortals entire libraries of commentary. Enjoy. And well done Senator McDowell.
It is clearing a deft attempt to upstage the parties in Government, but when thinking about it I have to admit that I’m vaguely sympathetic with the strategy.
For a start, they want to be seen to provide some sort of comfort to the low and middle income earners who - see the parallel ‘but, are you happy’ campaign initiated today – arguably feel left behind by all this Celtic Tiger talk. Certainly there’s a rich seam of voters to be found in the commuter belt where workers suffer long commutes on trains or endure expensive tolls on roads owned by one of the richest companies in the country while at the same time facing increasing price rises all over the shop.
Of course, any tax cut also benefits the rich, but adjusting the lower one isn’t as expensive as adjusting the higher rate, which was brought down anyway from 41 to 40 in the last budget – so it appears that they are trying to put cash back into the pocket of the average earner.
But of course any tax giveaway depends on continued economic success and Labour would have to prove that they can sustain that success. They argue cogently – most forcefully by Ruari Quinn on Saturday - that the present government are not responsible for the present success. However, it’s a bit of a stretch to suggest that Labour while in government in 1996 provided the ball with enough momentum to keep it rolling until now. And once in how can they show that they would do anything different to Fianna Fail/PD – Derek McDowell point on Saturday, when he admits to the consensus on the economy.
The elephant in the room regarding the economy and its continuing success is the fact that it is both dependant on a stable US economy and low corporation tax. In order to pay for what they plan these two things must remain the same and while the US economy is okay for the moment, economist suggest that it might not remain that way for too long.
I’m sympathetic Ben but as you say right at the top, they caught the government nearly as ill-prepared as the Irish rugby team in the last minute of Sunday’s match. All the advisors, consultants etc had nothing ready for a proposal to cut the basic rate of income tax. If I was Pat Rabbitte, I’d be digging up the ESRI report on the government’s infrastructure plans where there were concerns about how much would be wasted in construction price inflation given how overstretched the sector is here already. Pat can sound like a model of good sense in saying do we spend this money on cost overruns or on a tax cut which benefits everyone who pays income tax?
I can appreciate the tactic that Rabbitte and Co. have undertaken, and certainly it seems to have worked for now. But there was a bit of a strawman about all of this. The Labour party set themselves up for a defence from a phantom attack. After the 160 billion spending plan, FF and the PDs could hardly criticise the Labour party’s more modest spending plans as unrealistic. and Rabbitte’s speech was substantial enough without what I see anyway as a cheap gimmick.
Having said that, I think the public have bought it.