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Can FG/Lab turn today’s fortune into anything more?
Read more about: Bertiegate, Coalition, Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Government, Green Party, Health, Labour Party, National Development Plan, Polls, Progressive Democrats
Last Sunday’s SBP/Red C poll capped off a particularly rocky patch for the ‘Alternative Coalition’. Since October last both parties have endured a public revolt against their vision, following by a lengthy interrogation of Labour’s committment to Fine Gael.And with Fianna Fail riding high as a result of their leader’s very public low, and the PDs managing to ride through the turbulence which resulted from their jettisoning of the “watchdog” label, they hardly expected things to get worse - but that was ignoring the Budget and NDP.
And so the inevitable happened - last Sunday FG/Lab polled far too short to act like a credible alternative - in fact both parties combined were 9% short of matching FF on its own, with Bertie coming as close as ever to a single-party majority.
It seemed that their union - maybe because it was built on naiive intentions, maybe because of the public scrutiny - had completely failed to capture anyone’s imagination.
Under any other circumstances you could have bet on a very quick and quiet annulment, and even with an election just months away it was sure to be seriously considered.
However it must have been accepted that more than this election was at stake in the event of a u-turn at such a late stage. Labour in particular are still recovering from a similar betrayal of their own principals and would know better.
So when the parties appeared with their joint policy document on Health, it seemed as though they had agreed to stay together for their metaphorical children, but today’s poll suggests such a resigned attitude is not needed just yet.
With the balance of power lying firmly at the feet of the Green Party in the IT/MRBI study, FG/Lab are sure to take comfort. While Sergent has refused point-blank to give them his support, they know the party is already leaning in their favour - even if it is only because of their Anyone But Bertie outlook.But this improved scenario is not something either of the alternative should be happy with or proud of - the change is as a result of FF/PD weakness rather than FG/Lab strength.
The alternative coalition struck lucky to follow up a bleak patch with a focus on Health, and while this poll doesn’t reflect that there’s no doubt that it is one of a handful of FF/PD’s weak points and one they should focus on (without seeming to expolit).
In the bloated aftermath of Budgetry and NDP giveaways, it seems like the country is a little less sure of those in control for some reason - but can the would-be leaders take advantage of this sentiment without scaring the public off, again?
Sargeant is actually in favour of the Rainbow option - his motion to the Green Party National Conference was defeated by the members, who wanted to take an open hand into the election.
He’s still refused to give them his support - albeit because he doesn’t have the party behind him in doing so.
My money is still on FF-Lab.
“Sargeant is actually in favour of the Rainbow option - his motion to the Green Party National Conference was defeated by the members, who wanted to take an open hand into the election.”
That’s not true. There was never a motion put to convention to join a Rainbow pact. There was a motion to keep our options open as regards joining a pact at a later date, but I don’t think Sargent proposed it. In the event the members decided no pact at all was the way to go.
Either way, joemomma, it’s fair to say that Sargent leans towards FG/Lab very much - at least going by his comments on the Political Party some months back when he said he wouldn’t lead the Greens into a FF/Green coalition.
Obviously that doesn’t rule the party out of such an arrangement at all, just shows you what the leader is thinking.
“Either way, joemomma, it’s fair to say that Sargent leans towards FG/Lab very much”
I wouldn’t dispute that - he’s been very clear that he doesn’t want to go in with FF. I was just disputing the statement that “his motion to the Green Party National Conference was defeated by the members”.