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Tribune Poll Shows Support for Opposition
Read more about: Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Green Party, Labour Party, Polls, Progressive Democrats, Sinn Féin
Sunday’s Tribune has a poll to keep us going through the cold silly season. Fianna Fail at 39% (-3) Fine Gael at 22% and Labour at 12% (+2 each). Progressive Democrats at 5% (+1), Green Party at 5% (-1) and Sinn Fein at 7% (-1). Despite the slant from RTE that its a gain for opposition from the Government it looks like Fianna Fail are settling into 35%-40%. It could all change but Fianna Fail have made sure the news cycle for the next few months is choreographed through the NDP launch, Children’s referendum and other set pieces. Still it seems unlikely that there won’t be banana skins along the way and those gaps will require a very effective response (in policy and rhetoric) from the opposition to begin to peel voters away.
The rise in FG despite the backbencher antics indicates that some of the respondents to these poll questions are basing their answer on whoever was most recently in the news, good or ill. Recall that Bertie’s latest upward spike began during Nixergate.
Very true P O’Neill maybe it is the old adage about publicity.
Cian, it is worth noting the track record of IMS on this.
http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/reviews/2002/ios-ge-poll-may-2002.htm
They had FF on 50% less than a week before polling in 2002 and FG on 18%. Factor that into thre mix and we could be looking FF missing a budget bounce completely and actually being on just over 35% and FG closer to the 26/27% that other polls have indicated.
If FF really are in 36% territory then my prediction re party discipline http://www.irishelection.com/05/the-dangers-of-the-1-in-3-question-for-ff-tds/
in the 3 seaters could start to come into play quite soon.