To heed a falling tree…

Reviewing one online campaign, and looking forward to the next.

Six months on, it seems fairly clear that the impact of the web on the 2007 General Election campaign was minimal at best. Much was made in advance of May 2007 about the potential impact of the blogs (I remember the enthusiasm of the blogging the election conference), social networking and online forums but these would appear to have been based more on envious eyes cast west than anything else. In the end, the traditional means remained the dominant aspects of the election.

This is not to contradict per se the view articulated in How Ireland Voted 2007*, that this election was “the first time in Irish politics when the internet and the new media played such an important role both for the media and for the parties and the candidates.” Certainly the likes of RTE did solid work in bringing their content online, and this was picked up by internet users - but it was still the traditional means, albeit in another guise. But when it came to blogs, social networking and politicians’ own websites, it was largely a case of trees falling in the forest, and in the where there were large numbers of viewers it was the converted arguing with the converted – essentially trees listening to other trees falling.

Based on impressions at the time, and in the subsequent commentary it would appear that online citizens, either through their own blogs, through social networking failed to substantially register as a factor during the campaign - except, possibly, amongst the already politically committed. Take a look at politics.ie, by far and away the most influential of all political content online which is derived from online citizens. It is political hacks fighting between each other, good for the odd bit of gossip and a scrap, but with little evidence that it is engaging with those outside the politically committed sphere. The topics under discussion (on blogs and on internet forums) were largely those of interest to the political obsessives like your author, were almost exclusively of a national hue, and were almost exclusively reactionary - essentially a more hyper-active version of the existing national media. And to be honest the offerings were, in the main little more than what people were getting in the traditional media.

Where there is serious potential value, it is in the potential of influencing opinion-makers who have larger and more varied or influential audiences, and having an impact in that manner. That has not really emerged as of yet - or at least not to any obvious extent - but then how does one measure that? (such a discussion has popped up on Slugger following from one elsewhere), but that is probably where the real potential is for Irish political blogging.

The on-line efforts of the political parties and their candidates is harder to appreciate, but it would appear to be fairly minimal. Following previous research, and from personal experience of canvassing, while some people will look at the party websites for information, those individuals are generally people who have made substantially made up their minds already. The same can be largely said to be true of candidate’s individual websites with there be little evidence to associate between good election performances and online presence.

With regard to blogging only a few politicians engaged with and the impact was probably of a magnitude to suggest that it won’t be taken up by huge numbers in the immediate future. In the same article in How Ireland Voted 2007, Ciaran Cuffe is noted as “one of the most prominent and extensive users of the new technologies”, certainly true, while another established blogger who is also a politician would be Dominic Hannigan. Both candidates attracted good coverage online, as well as some local and national media off the back of their blogging - and in fairness, both are worth reading. But, it is hard to see in what way that their blogging contributed to their ultimate electoral performance - looking through their comments, it is rare to see evidence of the uncommitted floating voter. While blogging is possibly a positive tool allowing politicians to engage with the public at large, as a tool for the vast majority of politicians in the context of elections it can be said with a fair amount of certaintity, that today it is of little value.

Unlike in the US, Ciaran Cuffe or Dominic Hannigan’s desire to engage with voters at large is quite limited in the context of our parochial elections - and within that it is useful to remember Sean Lemass’s statement that the next election starts when the last count finished. While I am sure it is gratifying for Deputy Cuffe to have readers from all over the country, unless their voters in Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown is it really worth the hassle? Quite probably Deputy Cuffe will say it is, but for most other politicians? Doubtful, in at the current stage of online development where the tools allowing politicians to focus on a particular areas are relatively limited as of yet, and there is an absence of strong regional online communities. From that perspective, a rational politician who is not operating at a national level is unlikely to derive much benefit from blogging, or a particularly slick website. However, a frontbench spokesperson may well see the advantage of it as a tool for selling a message to the nation, as indeed will the parties themselves as corporate bodies as against individual efforts from individual politicians.

For non-national candidates social networking is certainly more promising in an Irish context. It provides an online equivalent of canvassing, and is certainly a means for politicians to put their name in front of potential voters as a friend of a friend. In a state were personal factors certainly play a role in voting choices there would appear to be value in it, and its was used by some candidates (most seeming to be from Fine Gael – in comparison Labour, went down the blogging route in a much more organised fashion) during the election. Indeed, I did come across one voter who knew the candidate I was canvassing for off the back of a Bebo site. But are people’s voting intentions really that fickle? Anyway, it has the advantage of an easier ability to target voters through networks and the like, and is probably the most likely tool which will be developed by local politicians in the immediate future.

Possibly with greater integration of online content (and of course some will argue it is already here), it will become easier for politicians to target particular local audiences and as such there will be greater online engagement. But it must be remembered that with our current political system, beyond the party nationally and the main spokespeople, the value of on-line participation will only really come with the development of more localised networks - essentially, with the development the online equivalent of local radio and newspapers.

Going forward, the most productive use of online content from politicians is likely to be at party levels, while individual websites and blogs (outside of the spokespersons, ministers and party leaders) are likely to be of limited value and probably not worth the time put into them. But that is not to say that the internet is largely an irrelevant tool to those who are seeking to influence people’s political choices. In the context of elections, it probably is, but in the forthcoming referenda - in particular the Reform Treaty - it may well be a force.

Why? The dynamics of the referenda are much different to the general election. Unlike in the election, door-to-door and supermarket canvassing, extensive and repeated leafleting are unlikely to be a substantial feature. Chances are no-one will knock on your door for a yes vote, and you wouldn’t get multiple visitors. And chances are, that most people won’t really care, a la Nice. In such a context, where there is a clear choice being articulated across the country on a particular subject – you can vote yes or no – and there amongst the general public the number of undecideds (many of whom will be politically engaged) will be massive when compared to the numbers being scrapped over in the general election.

Within that context, the potential for focused online campaigning is far greater than in an election. Whereas in the election people are being snowed under with messages from a wide variety of sources, and what is offered on-line is largely replication of what is within the traditional media (comment about reported news-stories), or is pushed through the door-box. In the forthcoming campaign, the media focus will be lesser, the issues will be lightly treated in the press and those voters seeking information source of information are more likely to be online than anywhere else considering that they won’t be too freely available in the traditional media – and certainly that is the tone set by Dick Roche in the Irish Times last week where he states the intention is to publish the White Paper online in first instance. The first part of the no-campaign to surface above the water, Libertas would appear to be largely a web focused effort.

Focused online campaigning has the possibility of influencing directly on voters who are more susceptible to opinions being offered online – as those opinions will have greater space to be played out in. But, there will need to be greater focus. There is simply too much unfocused political blogging, too many voices competing in a mad fashion, and far too often too much effort required to uncover the gems which are out there. With the referenda there will need to be aggregators bringing together bloggers from certain perspectives, rather than seeking to cover all angles or none at all. In tandem with this, Politics.ie is ideally placed to be a particularly important clearing house for debate on the Treaty, unfortunately the association with its editor and the Libertas grouping is potentially (but hopefully not) damaging to the sites credibility in this regard.

Similarly, with social networking as the potential for groups of friends to be influenced in a decision which may be viewed as less set or certain than in a general election. There is also the scope for online co-operation between various activists which the likes of Facebook is ideal to facilitate. Political parties have not really bothered with recruitment online to the same extent elsewhere, largely because political recruits will in the main come from canvassing, social contacts, or people who get involved in the local organisation. In contrast, in the forthcoming referendum, as in Nice II, there will be new organisations which will draw activists from a number of sources. These organisations to be successful will need to draw on more than extended existing networks and online recruitment should be a serious issue for these groups.

There is potential in the forthcoming referendum for a significant online impact, but only if there is particular effort put into focusing the output in a partisan and national manner. In campaigns like this, amongst leading politicians during general, local and European elections there is potential within blogs for political parties in selling their message, where such a message is sought to be delivered at a national level. In conjunction with this, social networking potentially offers rewards at the grass-roots levels How it all pans out is anyone’s guess, but the potential is there. In the end, its up to the likes of ourselves to do something about it.

*The Media and the Campaign - Heiz Brandenburg and Zbyszek Zalinski pages 167-186

This is a slightly amended version of a piece posted at my own site, Semper Idem.