They don’t believe him, but does it matter?

Today’s Sunday Business Post poll certainly contains some eyebrow-raising figures - particularly where it shows a majority in disbelief of Bertie Ahern’s tribunal performance to date. But to the probably relief of Ahern, and the Fianna Fáil party as a whole, this majority is not maintained when the topic moves to those who call for his resignation.

The only conclusion that can be taken in light of these two results is this - the public don’t believe Ahern but they don’t think the alleged lie is bad enough to distrust him generally. For Fianna Fáil, that’s the only fact that matters when they ask themselves “Is Ahern a liability for the party?”

If the fact that there is no majority calling for his resignation isn’t proof enough that Ahern is still seen as a party asset, the party’s strong overall performance in this and The Irish Times‘ poll of last week will surely resolve the completely, at least for now.

While it is the case that the majority don’t believe Ahern and it is also the case that people seem to be split on what he should do as a result of this, vitally the issue has not yet reached the tipping point where it becomes a party matter - and it won’t until a majority call for his resignation festers long enough for the public to turn their scorn on Fianna Fáil as a whole.

Until this happens, if it ever does, no-one in Fianna Fáil seems keen to desert Ahern but in politics you can be sure that’s its for reasons other than loyalty.

The most notable example is Ahern’s heir-apparent, Brian Cowen, who has shown himself to be particularly loyal since October 2006. But this is likely to be for more practical reasons than he might pretend.

Firstly, the Government is entering a particularly tricky period politically. There is a major vote on Europe coming down the line in May which will be a tough and messy battle. There is also the issue of the Children’s referendum and the local and European elections in 2009, which are unlikely to be as disasterous as 2004’s, but could still be an embarrassment if Fianna Fáil fails to regain the support they previously lost.

If Cowen were to take to the hot seat on the verge of these three big electoral events it would leave him wide open to a disasterous opening gambit. Just imagine if he came to power now only to lose a referendum that is billed as a pivotal point in EU history. Not only would it be bad locally, but internationally it would compare poorly to Ahern’s record in European affairs.

Likewise imagine if he lead the party into a lukewarm or even poor local/EU election result in 2009 - instantly people would begin to question his ability to lead a party or to follow in the footsteps of a man with a great reputation for organising the party on a local level.

But his relaxed attitude towards the position is for another reason and it’s one where these polls are critical. While Ahern is not at his most popular and while the public is beginning to ask questions, for the most part they are happy with his work and don’t want him out. If the public are happy with him, then so are the party and Cowen doesn’t want to be seen to be the one to stick the knife into a popular leader. It’s something that would not be forgotten by party or public alike if he did.

So do these polls matter? Well regarding the future of Ahern, it looks like he has nothing to worry about immediately and his position is safe if not solid. There may be some food for thought, though, in the fact that the majority of those asked feel the Tribunal is right to investigate in areas of contention such as Ahern’s personal finances.

While that doesn’t mean the public aren’t apathetic about the Tribunal, it shows that they certainly aren’t hostile to it nor do they think it has crossed any moral line so far. Given that Fianna Fáil’s PR machine against the Tribunal has played heavily on accusations of intrusion so far, they might be wise to take note of this and ask whether their pursuing of such a line has or will gain any traction with the common man, or whether it’s best to take a different tact.