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Is an Election Likely Sooner Rather Than Later?
Read more about: Irish Election, Polls
I wonder with the new RED C poll (see here and p.ie) if the chances are increasing of a snap election (or perhaps a Spring election)?
I was watching the news and it struck me that the tone of Harney’s comments about the hospital consultants was the sort of thing that the government might use to call an election and look for a mandate from the people to face down the consultants. In essence they could make the election appear to be about reform in the Health Service and with the least popular aspect of the consultant situation as the target. The current stand-off also runs counter intuitive to the public perception that the PD favour private medical practices over public access.
Bert is too cautious to cut and run. Besides if he made reform of the health service an election issue the opposition would benefit. Better to have the voters sleepwalk through another campaign based on no issues whatsoever.
I think he will go early. The opposition are gearing up for an election in May/June with a gradual roll out (and in Kenny’s case formulation) of policy between now and then. Everyone in the opposition is convinced that Bertie wants to go full term. If he called it now they would be scrambling to print election material never mind decide what to print on them.
Just read Gerry’s comment about going to the people on health playing into the hands of the opposition. I think it’s the opposite. If they go in May after things are resolved with the consultants and try to stand up and say all is fine now they’ll get nailed. BUT if they say the election is about giving them a mandate to take on the vested interests in the Health service then it puts them on the side of the patients. It could be a master stroke. The most cunning and devious of them all could yet have his finest hour.