Can FF really make an offer to tempt Labour?

It occurred to me that there some major difficulties being overlooked by those who are predicting that FF would be certain to cut a deal with Labour after the election if the numbers add up.FF is telling the world on the not so QT that Labour will do a deal if the numbers add up. To be honest I think that someone in Labour like Howlin should call FF on it and ask what they are prepared to do to get Labour in with them. However, in the absence of my having Howlin’s ear* I’m going to be the one doing the asking. So what will FF plan to offer to tempt Labour?

This FF Labour deal is only going to happen if FF have too few seats to be able to get into government with the PDs and a manageable handful of FF gene pool independents. Even the PDs most hopeful supporters at this point would think that 6 seats would be an excellent return for them, and 4 independents would seem the limit of manageability for a stable arrangement. So that would imply that FF would have to be on less than 72 seats for a deal with Labour to suggest itself in any compelling manner to FF. Anything more and FF will try and work it out with the PDs and the gene pool.

In a way FF have done well in terms of the spoils of victory with the PDs as they have only had to give up 2 out of 14 ministries and 2 juniors. However, in such a situation where FF had nowhere else to go Labour would push for 5 ministries and enough FF old heads that the cabinet has a new enough look that it could sold to the public as a new scenario. It would seem entirely possible that Bertie himself would have to go.

However, if Bertie held on then it would be odds on that Cullen, Roche and O’Donoghue would go for sure, and then possibly a minimum of two from Dempsey, O’Cuiv, O’Dea and Coughlan. However, clearing out this dead wood doesn’t open up opportunities for those on the FF backbenchers. Instead it would be Labour that would be getting the shiny new Mercedes. Indeed we would be looking at a high number of juniors returning to those very benches. Benches which would be now comprised of people who believe their only chance of advancement would come under a new leader. And a number of slight senior FF figures at least two of whom would have leadership ambitions of their own. And this leads us to the next problem.

Bertie would be on his last laps before going as he has indicated before his 60^th birthday. In this lame duck scenario we would see the manoeuvring within FF underway in a very transparent manner. One of the best ways of currying support on the back benches is to be able to offer advancement and that means getting rid of even more existing ministers. If someone like Martin, Ahern (D) or even O’Cuiv or Dempsey if demoted is to make a challenge to the coronation of Cowen then they must look to undermine the frontrunner. And the best way to do that is to work to promise mercs and perks.

Many of those who say that simply if the numbers add up that a deal is bound to be done choose to ignore the simple fact that a deal could be done right now since Labour and FF have the numbers. Again they had the numbers in 1997, and 2002, yet no deal was done. Why? In part this is because FF likes to have the left leaning side of things in government to themselves.

I would contend that if FF found themselves under 70 seats it might suit the various leadership contenders better to establish their authority while in opposition. It would seem much easier to do this with promises of jam tomorrow in the form of cabinet positions than to start with the no jam today for most of the backbenchers if they were commence while in government.

*none of your sniggering there at the back! That is not what I mean and you know it.