Irish Election - Coverage of Irish Politics, News and Current Affairs

Just three weeks to go to the referendum and the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ campaigns are still looking for the ignition switch that will engage the public. Thus far, the debate has been confined to politicos of right and left with precious little direct engagement by civic groups, so much a part of the colour and drama of past campaigns.

The Government parties’ campaign centres around words like ‘certainty’, ‘stability’ and ‘investor confidence’ as well as tormenting their ‘No’ vote opponents with questions about where they will get the money, at a reasonable rate of interest, if Ireland shuts itself off from access to ESM funding in the wake of a ‘No’ result?

The ‘No’ campaign has been dominated by Sinn Fein. The array of socialist groups such as the ULA, independents like Luke Ming Flanagan and Shane Ross,( who has yet to declare if he’s ‘Yes’ or ‘No’,) play occasional bit parts. The Socialist Workers Party’s Kieran Allen appears to spend much of his waking hours in TV and radio studios mostly saying the same thing – cancel bank debt, default as Greece has, tax the rich – as well as needling Government Ministers about where they propose to get the 11bn euro that Ireland will be obliged to contribute to the ESM if this referendum is passed? Continue reading ‘Fiscal Treaty debate is too narrow – unknowns and uncertainties on ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ sides’ »

It’s an interesting day on the Irish Times opinion page as Vincent Browne and Terence McDonough set out the anti-Yes position on the fiscal treaty, specifically regarding whether Ireland will still have recourse to the IMF outside the European Stability Mechanism. It’s clear that technically, as an IMF member country, it will. But leave aside for a second the question of whether IMF policies will leave it enough room to cater for a rogue Eurozone state like Ireland in that eventuality. What about our existing obligations under EU treaties, as codified in the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (“Lisbon Treaty’):

Continue reading ‘The IMF option sailed with the Lisbon treaty’ »

According to the latest national opinion poll in the Sunday Times, up to half the electorate doesn’t understand what the Stability Treaty, on which we are being asked to vote in a few weeks time , is about.  The opinion polls suggest that about 30 % of the electorate are committed to a ‘Yes’ vote,  slightly ahead of the number who will definitely vote ‘No’, with up to 40% still undecided as to which way they will cast their ballot when it comes to it. The committed ‘Yes’ vote should sound alarm bells for the government and pro-treaty activists: at this pre-campaign stage it would need to be a lot higher to guarantee a positive result. The government parties thus have a lot to do to convince a majority of the electorate that a ‘Yes’ to this Treaty, now positively renamed the ‘Stability Treaty’, is in the national interest and our own personal interests as well. Continue reading ‘Should we really vote ‘Yes’ to the Stability Treaty?’ »

The IMF has published a self-evaluation of its massive lending program to Iceland — a program which Iceland has now exited. Although a little technical, it’s an interesting read, but of course the people who should read it — the Irish Department of Finance types who mocked Iceland in 2009-2010 — won’t. There are two take-aways from the report. One is what Iceland did about the banks; that ship has sailed for us now but it’s no harm understanding even after the fact how bad the choices were. The other is how to deal with the overhang of personal debt, which is still a big issue for Ireland and one where informed choices can be made. Quotes below the fold. Short version: no blanket guarantees, no pari passu rubbish about senior unsecured creditors, no NAMA, and an aggressive approach to reducing domestic corporate and household debt burdens (update: the IMF makes the Iceland case of household mortgage debt a centerpiece of their Spring 2012 World Economic Outlook).

Continue reading ‘Iceland, again’ »

After 3000+ pages of the Mahon Tribunal Report, one finding is clear: it’s all the fault of Denis O’Brien. Soon it will come out that he was in the room on the night of the bank guarantee. Anyway, following quickly on the Sunday Independent’s line, the Irish Times has another anti-Denis scoop:
A FRENCH company has claimed it was denied the opportunity to make an offer for Irish company Siteserv which businessman Denis O’Brien is poised to acquire this week for €45 million. The Altrad group, which owns companies in the same areas of business as Siteserv, said at the weekend that it had been prepared to offer €60 million for the Irish firm. But it was effectively denied the opportunity because its representative was told the Irish group was not for sale.

Now that all may be, but is a little Googling too much to expect? Here’s Davy’s summary of the deal, and they should know as they were involved in it:

Under the terms of the disposal, IBRC  [Anglo Irish Bank] has agreed to accept payment of an amount which is less than the total debt owed by the group in full and final discharge of its indebtedness. This agreement was critical to the proposed acquisition by Millington. [DOB vehicle]

In other words, the firm has a huge debt to pay and it can’t pay it. So to quote from one firm’s version of the e-mails that it sent with an offer price for the equity is meaningless. The Irish Times needs to explain what the French firm’s bid — which somehow missed the window where the company and IBRC were discussing what to do — would have done with the firm’s debt. You’d think by now in Ireland there’d be an understanding that legacy debt is a dealbreaker. Apparently not.

Before I begin I should point out my expertise is not in nuclear physics so this is not an “expert” opinion but neither is it a vested interest opinion. Whether or not Ireland adapts Nuclear power will have the same effect on my life as it will on yours.

At 14:46 Japanese standard time on the 11th of March 2011 a magnitude 9 earthquake struck off the coast at Tōhoku. The earthquake and the ensuing Tsunami took the lives of 15,850 people. Television pictures flew around the world, showing utter devastation, with flood waters racing through the countryside, effortlessly sweeping aside cars and buildings in its path. It was, a relentless tide of destruction. Yet Tohoku is not a name that will live in infamy, instead, one year on, the name we associate most with this disaster is Fukushima.
Continue reading ‘How I stopped worrying and learned to love Nuclear’ »

This afternoon, Taoiseach Enda Kenny announced to the Dail that a referendum to ratify the European Stability Treaty will take place. This follows advice from the Attorney General to Government that a referendum is necessary.

“At this morning’s Cabinet meeting, the AG conveyed her advice that, as this
treaty is a unique instrument, outside the European Union treaty
architecture, on balance, a referendum is required to ratify it,” Mr Kenny told the Dail.

“In this referendum, the Irish people can confirm our commitment to
responsible budgeting and, in doing so, ensure that the reckless economic
mismanagement that drove our country to the brink of bankruptcy will not be
repeated by any future Government,” he said.

In a follow up statement in the Dail, the Tanaiste,  Eamon Gilmore, said: “Endorsing the Treaty will be another important milestone for Ireland in our road to recovery. In the weeks ahead, as the Government puts in place the necessary measures for a Referendum, that is the case we will make to the people, and I am confident that the people will respond by saying Yes to the Treaty.”

The referendum, he said, would be a “Vote for Economic Stability and Economic Recovery.”

No date was mentioned as to when the referendum is likely to be held. From the statements by the Coalition leaders, it is clear that the Government case for a ‘Yes’ vote will be based on Ireland’s economic recovery. Of the Dail parties, it is anticipated that Fianna Fail will support a ‘Yes’ vote, whilst the Treaty will be opposed by Sinn Fein as a ‘vote for austerity policies’ and by Socialist parties.

For the record, both statements are reproduced beneath the fold.

Continue reading ‘Taoiseach announces Referendum on European Fiscal Treaty’ »

Draghi, not Rosenstock. Here’s the President of the European Central Bank in an interview with the Wall Street Journal discussing the fiscal compact:

Many things have happened in Europe in the last year and a half. You have different countries that have different initial conditions–high debt, low growth countries and countries with low debt and high growth–and they pose the fundamental question of how do we go on without being a fiscal union. We can’t have a system where you spend as you want, and then you ask to issue (debt) together. You can’t have a system where you spend and I pay for that. Before we move to a fiscal union we have to have in place a system where countries can show that they can stand on their own. And this is the prerequisite for countries to trust each other. This so-called fiscal compact treaty is actually a major political achievement because it’s the first step towards a fiscal union. It’s a treaty whereby countries release national sovereignty in order to accept common fiscal rules that are especially binding, and accept monitoring and accept to have these rules in their primary legislation so they are not easy to change. So that’s the beginning.

Release of sovereignty, rules that are especially binding, rules in their primary legislation. Mario Draghi says that we need a referendum on the fiscal compact.

This  Government would probably gleefully order the ritual sacrifice of half a dozen of its junior Ministers at the foot of the Papal Cross in the Phoenix Park if it thought such slaughter might avoid having to hold a referendum on the new intergovernmental Treaty.  

Right now there is a different ritual underway. The same civil servants from the Attorney General’s office who, according to Europe Minister Lucinda Creighton, were part of Ireland’s  negotiating team in Brussels on the Treaty, will be putting in their tuppence worth of advice to the Attorney General, to whom the Cabinet has now referred the question as to whether or not a referendum is required. The AG will be under ‘no pressure’ in coming to her decision, according to the Taosieach. It’s also a fact that the most the AG can do is advise the government of the day. It is ultimately their decision as to what happens, in light of any advice that is offered.

Then again, on the face of it, the Government has done as much as it can to ensure that the wording of the Treaty will not trigger a legal requirement for a referendum. Continue reading ‘The Government’s EU Problem: No Referendum = Credibility loss, possibly fatal’ »

It’s hard to gauge how strong and stable this government is. A Red C poll for Paddy Power last week suggests the public haven’t been too perturbed by the political and media shenanigans surrounding December’s hair shirt budget. As Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein each lost a point in their ratings,  Fine Gael went up a point. So did Labour. Both government parties are now just three points short, respectively, of where they were in last year’s General Election.

The Government enjoys a rock solid parliamentary majority, which looks likely to hold through thick and thin.  And the best prognosis for 2012 is that whilst things may not get any worse, they’re unlikely to get any better. So in good news terms ,‘thin’ is most likely to be the political diet . Continue reading ‘The place for Ministers to influence government policy is within the Cabinet, not the pages of the Sunday Independent’ »

Clearly picking up from the political ether that the Mahon Tribunal report is coming out next week, Micheál Martin wants it to be known (via the Irish Times) that at least after the fact, there’s a new sheriff in town:

In August 2007, then Minister for Finance Brian Cowen gave an address to the Humbert Summer School.  It’s worth reading it all (scroll down to comments) to see the hubris that characterised this vintage of Fianna Fail – at a time when the banking system was already fatally compromised.

Continue reading ‘He wasn’t expecting that’ »

In the early months of 2011 it sometimes felt like 1989 all over again, the year when people power across Central and Eastern Europe brought about the final collapse of communism.  This year it was the turn of people who had endured decades of oppression and dictatorship in the Middle East and North Africa to take to the streets to reassert control over their own lives and demand regime change.

But as people in one area of the world placed their hopes in the establishment of democratic values, the flaws of democracy were being dramatically exposed in places where it is held to be most firmly entrenched.  In the US, the failure of a Democratic President and a Republican Congress to broker an agreement on a new debt ceiling almost brought the most powerful nation on the planet to the brink of sovereign default. In Europe, two democratically elected governments were effectively deposed and replaced by technocrats more suited to a Franco-German alliance that has shifted the delicate balance of the EU’s institutional democracy in favour of the preservation of their own interests.

In our own little neck of the woods, 2011 began as a year of great hopes. Continue reading ‘Farewell to 2011 – the year of great hopes and dashed expectations’ »

A country is not a company and government is not a learning institution in which the top class are required to write assignments on a flawed module (the PfG)  for assessment by the head teacher who will then present them with ‘action points’ on how to do better in future.  Nobody appears to have told Enda Kenny that though.

According to this morning’s Irish Times:

“Taoiseach Enda Kenny said yesterday that he will meet Ministers individually in January to itemise their responsibilities in terms of “actionable points” in the programme, and will be demanding a progress report from each of them at the end of the Government’s first year in office.

In an interview with political correspondents, the Taoiseach said that he had established an office in his own department to translate the programme into “actionable points” so that the performance of Ministers can be assessed. Continue reading ‘Boneheaded schoolmaster’s approach by Taoiseach to performance assessment of Ministers’ »

The President of Cyprus, Dimitris Christofias, is quoted in yesterday’s Der Spiegel:
“We really ought to engineer a revolution against Merkel and Sarkozy,” he said, “but each of us needs the two of them for something.”
No doubt David Cameron would agree, with the first of these sentiments anyway. The diehard home counties Tory view is that the UK doesn’t need the EU and would be better off out of it entirely. Hence the rapturous welcome Cameron received from his Conservative backbenchers on return from staging his rebellion at the EU summit last weekend, where he had vetoed the proposed new fiscal regime for the EU and was then effectively shown the door. He was their hero, and the spirit of ‘Bulldog Britishness’ ruled the airwaves for a time.

Continue reading ‘Ireland and the EU – Should we engineer a Revolution?’ »

Big things are happening in a big week for Irish and European politics and, let’s be honest, most of us don’t really understand what’s happening, or why. The budget to be unveiled today and tomorrow will need to cut spending and increase taxes because of the banks, or something. The European summit being held on Friday will save or discard the euro, and radically reshape the EU, because of the bond markets, or something. The deliberative processes underlying both projects are far removed from the lives and concerns of ordinary citizens; fatalistically awaiting the pronouncements of the actual decision-makers seems to be our lot.

Continue reading ‘The Irish Times, the eurozone and the plebs’ »